We’ve reached the final stage of grief as it relates to Xander Bogaerts’ departure from the Boston Red Sox.
First, there was denial. How could the Red Sox not re-sign their franchise shortstop this past Major League Baseball offseason, opening the door for him to land a massive contract with the San Diego Padres? It just didn’t make sense.
Then came anger. A lot of it. Not from Bogaerts or the Red Sox, but from fans upset over the loss of a beloved homegrown talent. It was intense. And it was understandable. Bogaerts wasn’t just an excellent player for Boston. He was part of the organization’s and the city’s fabric, a leader on and off the field.
Eventually, that anger transitioned to bargaining — “if only the Red Sox did X, then they might’ve been able to keep Bogaerts for Y.” While the business of baseball (and sports, in general) oftentimes disrupts otherwise harmonious relationships, it doesn’t make the breakups any easier. Regret creeps in. What could Boston have done differently?
From there, the depression started. Because in addition to the Red Sox losing Bogaerts, his apparent replacement, Trevor Story, underwent elbow surgery that’ll sideline him for most of the 2023 season. And in Story’s absence, Boston’s shortstop situation only grew murkier, with inconsistent performance and subsequent injuries forcing manager Alex Cora to juggle his middle-infield combinations ad nauseum. Bogaerts, as fate would have it, went on a tear to begin his Padres tenure before cooling off.
All told, here’s the deal: The Red Sox, amid iffy outside expectations, have kept their heads above water, entering the weekend with a 24-20 record. The Padres, conversely, have been wildly disappointing, posting a 20-24 record despite visions of a World Series parade through San Diego later this year.
This isn’t to defend the Red Sox or to question the Padres. It’ll be years before we can fully assess the impact of Bogaerts leaving Boston to join San Diego. (He signed an 11-year contract!) And the conversation is so nuanced — does Rafael Devers sign his own monstrous extension with the Red Sox, for instance, if Bogaerts re-signs? — that we might never be able to perfectly articulate the fallout.
But as the Red Sox head to San Diego for three games against the Padres this weekend, their first-ever head-to-head matchup against Bogaerts, it’s a good time to enter that final stage of grief: acceptance.
Bogaerts told The Boston Globe he’s not looking back, despite staying in touch with former coaches and teammates “almost every day.” The Red Sox must take a similar approach, for the good of their future, when crossing paths at Petco Park. Everyone finally can move on.
The Red Sox’s three-game series against the Padres this weekend marks the beginning of a nine-game West Coast road trip for Boston that also includes three games apiece against the Los Angeles Angels and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Red Sox odds (May 19)*
To win World Series: +6000
To win American League: +2500
To win AL East: +3000
To make playoffs: +220
Some interesting line movement since our last check-in: The Red Sox’s odds to win the American League dropped from +3000 to +2500 at FanDuel Sportsbook, whereas their odds to win the AL East ballooned from +2300 to +3000. In other words, oddsmakers now believe Boston has a better shot of punching its ticket to the World Series than winning its division.
Sounds strange, right? Sure, except it makes sense when you consider the Red Sox must leapfrog four teams in the AL East, including the Tampa Bay Rays, who own the best record in baseball (32-13) and a 7 1/2-game advantage over last-place Boston. Meanwhile, the Red Sox entered Friday only one game back of the American League’s second wild-card spot. And once you’re in the postseason, you’re in. Anything can happen.
*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Probable pitchers
— Friday, May 19 (9:40 p.m. ET at Padres): James Paxton, LHP (0-0, 3.60 ERA) vs. Blake Snell, LHP (1-5, 4.61 ERA)
— Saturday, May 20 (10:10 p.m. ET at Padres): Chris Sale, LHP (3-2, 5.40 ERA) vs. Joe Musgrove, RHP (1-1, 6.63 ERA)
— Sunday, May 21 (4:10 p.m. ET at Padres): Corey Kluber, RHP (2-5, 6.41 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha, RHP (4-1, 4.06 ERA)
Storylines to watch
1. Will Xander Bogaerts make his former team pay?
In the figurative sense, of course. We touched on this above, but this marks Bogaerts’ first time playing against the Red Sox, the organization that signed him as a 16-year-old out of Aruba in 2009. Now 30, Bogaerts enters the weekend slashing .275/.374/.431 with six home runs and 16 RBIs in 43 games (187 plate appearances) with his new club. Not bad numbers overall, but he’s recorded only one multihit game since April 21, a 22-game stretch in which he’s slashing just .200/.333/.288 with one homer and four RBIs in 96 plate appearances. He hasn’t gone deep since April 29 in Mexico.
2. Can James Paxton build on his strong debut?
Paxton returned to an MLB mound last Friday for the first time in over two years. And the results were encouraging, with the 34-year-old left-hander showing good velocity while allowing two earned runs on four hits over five innings. He struck out nine and walked one. But repeating that performance, both Friday night and moving forward, is the real challenge as Paxton looks to become a mainstay in Boston’s rotation after being hampered in recent years by various injuries, including Tommy John surgery. San Diego’s lineup has no shortage of talent despite underwhelming production thus far in 2023.
3. Is Corey Kluber fighting for his job?
The Red Sox just moved Nick Pivetta to the bullpen with Paxton joining the rotation. Someone else needs to follow suit when Garrett Whitlock returns from the injured list, and Kluber and Tanner Houck seem like the most logical candidates (if not Whitlock himself). Houck probably is better suited for a relief role than Kluber, having had success out of the bullpen as recently as last season, but something needs to give with the latter. Kluber has struggled through eight starts, his ERA now sitting at 6.41. The rotation logjam only puts more pressure on him to bounce back.
