NFL Conference Championship Picks: Chiefs-Ravens, Lions-49ers ATS Predictions

The final four in the NFL is set, and trying to make picks for championship weekend isn’t easy.

Trips to the Super Bowl are on the line Sunday in Baltimore and San Francisco, where the Kansas City Chiefs and Ravens do battle ahead of the 49ers hosting the Detroit Lions.

When it comes to picking a side against the spread, it’s a tough call. In the AFC opener, the Ravens are historically dominant. Only three teams in NFL history have ever had an All-Pro quarterback and the No. 1 scoring defense, and all of them won the Super Bowl. That being said: Do you really want to bet against Patrick Mahomes, who is catching more than a field goal?

In the NFC, the bigger spread makes it even more difficult. The 49ers’ offense with Deebo Samuel was a wagon. The receiver got hurt last week against Green Bay, and his absence almost cost the Niners their season. San Fran averaged a yard-and-a-half less per play without him on the field this year, so they’re hopeful he can play through his shoulder injury. Even if he plays, Dan Campbell’s feisty Lions seem more than comfortable playing the underdog role, even if it means getting outside the comfort of Ford Field.

NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle spent an hour discussing everything about this weekend’s games in this week’s episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast. Check out the episode below.

Here’s how the guys did with their picks last week.

Now, here are their against-the-spread picks for the AFC Championship Game and the NFC Championship Game.

SUNDAY, JAN. 28

No Matchup Found

Click here to enter a different Sportradar ID.

Kansas City Chiefs at (-4) Baltimore Ravens, 3 p.m. ET
Mike: Ravens.
Look, if you want to lay the points here, you have to get comfortable with the fact that you’re on the wrong side of Patrick Mahomes getting points. Me, personally, I was OK with that last week in Buffalo and obviously was on the wrong side. Ultimately, though, I think this matchup is even worse for a Chiefs team that isn’t the same team we’ve seen for years. Credit to them, it has been a championship effort just to get this far. But the Baltimore defense presents a far more difficult challenge this week.

One thing that stood out this week was this story on The33rdTeam.com, pointing out that the Ravens rank fifth in pass rush total points per play, and they’re going up against a KC offensive line that is one of the worst in the league, at least by the advanced metrics. KC’s defense is legit, too, but it has struggled at times to stop the run, and Baltimore has the personnel — despite a season-long rash of backfield injuries — to make that a problem for the Chiefs.

Ricky: Ravens.
Tempted to take the points? You betcha. It’s rare the Chiefs find themselves as underdogs, and they usually respond well in those instances. They have the coach, the quarterback and the championship pedigree. It’s very Patriots dynasty-esque in that they always capitalize on mistakes, rising to the occasion as their opponent crumbles. But the Bills were ripe for the picking last week, thanks to a surplus of defensive injuries, whereas the Ravens come in with the best defense in football. Don’t undersell the increased degree of difficulty.

That’ll obviously be a huge mountain for Patrick Mahomes and company to climb, but Kansas City’s greater challenge involves slowing down Lamar Jackson and Baltimore’s offense. Buffalo had success on the ground against KC last week, with quarterback Josh Allen rushing 12 times for 72 yards with two touchdowns, and Baltimore poses similar problems in that regard. And the Ravens’ biggest advantage might be in the red zone, where they rank sixth in scoring percentage and second in opponent scoring percentage.

No Matchup Found

Click here to enter a different Sportradar ID.

Detroit Lions at (-7.5) San Francisco 49ers, 6:30 p.m.
Mike: 49ers.
Full chalk for me. You can look at last week’s Niners game in one of two ways. The first is they were lucky to survive the Packers and now an arguably better team will finish what Green Bay started. The other way to look at it is Green Bay was a bad matchup for a rusty San Francisco team playing in rain that neutralized their offense, a unit that was missing arguably its best player for nearly the entire game. I obviously lean toward the latter.

The Deebo Samuel injury is huge, but if he goes, this 49ers offense is a major problem for an iffy Detroit defense that ranked 30th in passing defense by EPA. The 49ers should roll if they can play from in front, forcing the Lions into passing more than they’ll want to. That allows San Fran to get after Jared Goff, who was the NFL’s second-best QB when kept clean and 18th when under pressure (by EPA).

Ricky: 49ers.
Brock Purdy’s uneven performance last week against the Packers was jarring from a 49ers perspective. As good as he’s been this season, there’s still a chance the floor falls out from underneath his feet, particularly if Deebo Samuel doesn’t play or is limited Sunday, and San Francisco fails to pull away. But the concerns on the Lions’ side are more plentiful. Go ahead and lay the points.

The Lions rank 28th in opponent yards per play (29th on the road), and they just allowed 367 passing yards to Matthew Stafford and 349 to Baker Mayfield in back-to-back weeks while also showing cracks in their usually staunch run defense. Throw in Jared Goff’s track record in 23 career road games with Detroit — an 86.5 QB rating and a 64.1% completion percentage (for context, each mark would rank 22nd among qualified QBs) — and it’s easy to see how the moment could go sideways against elite competition.