Patriots Have Six Possible Options With Bill Belichick After Season

The Patriots will host the New York Jets this Sunday in their final game of the 2023 season. We don’t yet know whether it’ll also be Belichick’s final game as New England’s head coach.

Rumors about Belichick’s job security have swirled for months — and only intensified after the Patriots were eliminated from playoff contention, secured their first last-place finish in the AFC East since 2000 and stacked up their most losses in a single season since 1992.

According to reports from multiple outlets this week, Belichick will meet with team owner Robert Kraft and team president Jonathan Kraft in the days following Sunday’s season finale, most likely on Monday. Additional meetings could follow, with some reports suggesting the Krafts’ final decision will not come on Black Monday and could take “weeks” to reach.

The choice they ultimately make will have massive, franchise-shaking ramifications for the 4-12 Patriots, who are about to wrap up their fifth consecutive season without a playoff victory.

How will it all end? Here are the six possible outcomes for Belichick:

1. Belichick is fired
This is a possibility if their meeting goes poorly, but remote one. Multiple reports indicated Robert Kraft will not outright fire Belichick, with NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport calling that scenario “highly, highly unlikely.” It would be an abrupt and unceremonious end for a coach with Belichick’s unrivaled résumé, and one Kraft likely wouldn’t want as part of his legacy.

2. Belichick is traded
Head coach trades aren’t common in the NFL, but they do happen. That’s how Belichick landed his current gig in the first place, with the Patriots sending a first-round pick to the New York Jets to acquire his rights in 2000. We’ve seen two coaches change teams via trade in the last five years, with Bruce Arians going from Arizona to Tampa Bay in 2019 and Sean Payton hopping from Denver to New Orleans in 2021. Those situations weren’t analogous, though, as Arians and Payton both took a year off before joining their new teams.

There reportedly are at least a few teams that would be interested in Belichick if he becomes available, and trading him would allow the Patriots to recoup an asset for his exit. The calculus there could be tricky, however, as Belichick likely would balk at a deal that makes his new team worse. A potential workaround: Trade Belichick for a future draft pick, perhaps one tied to his new club’s success. Say, a 2025 second-rounder that can become a first if the team advances past a certain playoff round.

3. Belichick and the Patriots “mutually part ways”
Given the logistics that a potential trade would require, this might be the most likely outcome. If Kraft determines after their meeting(s) that his and Belichick’s visions cannot align, and Belichick has the desire to continue coaching elsewhere, a mutual split would make sense. This would allow the Patriots to celebrate Belichick’s accomplishments upon his departure and, theoretically, not torpedo the relationship between the two sides.

It’s worth noting that a contentious divorce also could be presented as a mutual agreement for PR purposes.

4. The Patriots retain Belichick in his current role
Kraft could simply maintain the status quo for next season, allowing Belichick to continue serving as New England’s head coach and de facto general manager, as he has since 2000. Maybe Belichick sells him on a plan to resurrect an offense that’s been one of the NFL’s worst and most dysfunctional for the last two seasons. Kraft surely would prefer to keep Belichick rather than watch him coach elsewhere.

But after publicly declaring in back-to-back offseasons that he expected the Patriots to be a playoff team, it’s hard to envision Kraft being satisfied with the current setup following a 12- or 13-loss campaign.

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5. The Patriots retain Belichick as head coach but install a new general manager
This would be the ideal path forward. Replacing Belichick, the head coach, likely would mean accepting a downgrade at that spot. His game-planning still is top-tier, and the results over the last two months prove the team still is playing hard for him.

But Belichick’s repeated roster-building and staffing misfires over the past several years are what caused the Patriots to sink to the bottom of the NFL. Something needs to change in that area. The process of acquiring talent — and supplementing it with the proper coaching — needs to improve. Especially in a critical offseason in which New England will have a top-five draft pick, around $75 million in salary cap space and major holes to fill at offensive tackle, wide receiver and quarterback.

The question, of course, is whether Belichick would be willing to accept what amounts to a demotion — keeping his head-coaching duties while giving his personnel control. And if Belichick does agree to let Kraft hire a GM with whom he previously worked (a Thomas Dimitroff, Dave Ziegler or Jon Robinson type), would that person really feel empowered to overrule his former boss on tough decisions?

Any outcome that involves Belichick remaining with the Patriots would be an “upset,” as NBC Sports’ Peter King put it on Friday.

6. Belichick retires
Possible? In theory, sure. Belichick will be 72 years old when the 2024 season begins. He’s already won six Super Bowls as a head coach and is widely regarded as the greatest coach in NFL history. He could opt to chill out on Nantucket rather than go through the process of building up his program and culture with a new franchise.

But Belichick has given zero indications that he plans to stop coaching. He remains as hyper-competitive and committed as ever, and he’s within striking distance of Don Shula’s all-time wins record. He needs 15 more to pass Shula (14 if the Patriots win on Sunday), meaning even average showings in the next two seasons would put him on track to break the record sometime in 2025.

It seems like a near certainty that Belichick will be on some team’s sideline come September.