Patriots-Jets Betting Preview: Trends, Prop, Pick For Week 18

Will this be Bill Belichick's final game with New England?


Jan 5, 2024

Week 18 will have must-win games and divisional titles on the line, and oh yeah, the New England Patriots and New York Jets will play football, too.

It was a strange game week between these rivals. The focus on the Jets side was Aaron Rodgers and his drama with Jimmy Kimmel that Pat McAfee attempted to play down. For the Patriots, the focus was on Bill Belichick and whether or not he will have a future in Foxboro, Mass. The longtime head coach and Robert Kraft will meet Monday, according to ESPN’s Mike Reiss, which puts more of a focus on what will happen after the game.

Matthew Slater also might play his last game with New England, which would be an underrated bittersweet farewell since the three-time Super Bowl champion was an integral part of the team throughout his career. The five-time All-Pro received remarkable praise from Belichick and could go down as one of the best special teams players of all time.

Those factors that kind of make this game irrelevant. The New England area is expected to face an extreme snowstorm, which is reflected in the game’s low total. But for those braving the elements, they could witness history. It might not be a remarkable game, but those who attended Tom Brady’s last regular season and final playoff game with the Patriots will cherish those memories for decades. It could be the same for what could be Belichick’s final Patriots contest.

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Here’s all you need to know about Sunday’s Patriots-Jets matchup from a betting perspective. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and NESN Bets consensus data.

New York Jets at (-1.5) New England Patriots
Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, Mass.

The last time these teams played, the Patriots won and covered as a road favorite, and the game went under the total. Jets head coach Robert Saleh went 1-8-1 ATS in his last 10 games, but Belichick was 1-8-1 ATS in his last 10 home games, according to VSiN. New England went 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against New York and 11 of its last 15 games against New York went under the total. However, the Patriots went over the total in six of Bailey Zappe’s last seven starts. Zappe also was 3-1-1 ATS in his last five starts.

Kevin Harris anytime touchdown (+500) — Scoring will come at a premium and while Ezekiel Elliott has lofty incentives to reach, New England might give Harris a shot to see what he can do in the final game of the season. The Patriots offense went to the second year back when they couldn’t get anything going in the run game, and with wintry conditions expected, New England will run the ball plenty.

Team total under 14.5 points (-110) — New York might come into this game with something to prove, but this matchup sets up well for New England, which ranks second in rush defense EPA. Trevor Siemian simply needs to survive for the offseason since the Jets’ only plan at quarterback is to hope Rodgers is healthy enough for next season.

PICK: Patriots -1.5 (-110)
There’s no way New England can lose, right? The team’s leaders might threaten everyone with a fifth quarter if New York does pull off the victory. A win would shake things up for the Patriots’ draft pick, but Belichick isn’t going to care if he’s leaving. Also, there’s no way Belichick would tank even if he was coming back. The players want to end this season on something close to a high note, and a win in a snowstorm would suffice.

Thumbnail photo via Gregory Fisher/USA TODAY Sports Images

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