Seven Takeaways From Patriots’ Loss To Bills As Judgment Day Looms

The Patriots are a 12-loss team for the first time in Robert Kraft’s ownership tenure. They’re locked into last place in the AFC East for the first time since Bill Belichick’s debut season as head coach. Depending on what happens in Week 18, they could pick as high as second in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The biggest question as the Patriots prepare for their 2023 season finale (New York Jets, Gillette Stadium, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET) is, of course, whether Belichick still will be around to make that premium draft pick.

As of Monday morning, it remained unclear how Kraft planned to proceed with the greatest coach in NFL history. Belichick wouldn’t address the matter, saying his sole focus is closing out the season with a win over the hated Jets.

It’s entirely possible, however, that this is Belichick’s final week with the franchise he led to six Super Bowl titles and nine AFC championships. The scene Sunday at Gillette should be downright bizarre.

No Matchup Found

Click here to enter a different Sportradar ID.

But speaking of bizarre, let’s first run through some takeaways from the Patriots’ weird and wacky 27-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday:

1. Where the draft pick stands
With one week remaining, the Patriots are on track to land the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Cardinals’ upset of the Philadelphia Eagles was huge for New England, as it dropped Arizona into a tie with the Patriots and Washington Commanders. Both teams have a hefty strength-of-schedule edge over the Cardinals, meaning they’d receive the higher pick if they finished tied.

Washington currently has a lower SOS than New England (.515 to .518), but that could change based on the Week 18 results around the league. Lose to the Jets next Sunday, and the Patriots would be guaranteed a top-three pick. Win, and they could fall as low as No. 7.

The 2-14 Carolina Panthers clinched the NFL’s worst record on Sunday, so the No. 1 overall pick is off the table for New England.

2. Once again, they didn’t quit
The Patriots have shown admirable resilience in the latter stages of this lost season. They hung with yet another more talented opponent on Sunday and didn’t pack it in even after turning the ball over on four of their first six possessions (three Bailey Zappe interceptions and a lost Pharaoh Brown fumble). New England is 2-6 since the start of November, but all six of those losses were by 10 or fewer points, including five one-score games.

It must be noted when discussing whether or not to retain Belichick that the team clearly has not tuned him out even as the losses pile up. Belichick’s defense also has remained hyper-competitive despite missing several key pieces. That unit kept the Patriots in the game against Buffalo and gave them a chance to win late.

3. Bad Bailey Zappe returned
One week after delivering his best all-around performance of the season in the Christmas Eve win in Denver, Zappe followed it up with a maddeningly inconsistent outing.

The second-year quarterback threw interceptions on his first, third and ninth pass attempts Sunday, repeatedly gifting Josh Allen and the Bills offense short fields. His third pick — for which receiver Jalen Reagor deserved the bulk of the blame — was returned 40 yards for a touchdown that put Buffalo ahead 20-7 early in the second quarter.

To Zappe’s credit, he settled down and was much better from that point on, gaining three or more first downs on each of New England’s next four non-kneeldown possessions. He maneuvered well inside and outside the pocket against an active Bills pass rush and hit on one shot downfield, connecting with Reagor for 39 yards to set up a fourth-quarter Ezekiel Elliott touchdown.

But the early ball-security blunders proved too much to overcome. Zappe’s chance for a go-ahead drive went three-and-out, and Buffalo was able to run out the clock, wasting another impressive showing from New England’s defense. The Patriots are 4-5 this season when committing one or zero turnovers and 0-7 when turning it over two times or more.

Five weeks into his starting audition, Zappe still has yet to prove he’s anything more than a respectable backup.

4. It feels like Trent Brown has played his final snap for the Patriots
Brown was a healthy scratch for Sunday’s game, and based on reporting from various outlets, it would be surprising to see him back in the lineup week. That reporting included a damning quote from an anonymous teammate, who told Boston Sports Journal’s Mike Giardi that Brown isn’t among the players who are “fighting for each other and for pride, even though the results aren’t what any of us want.”

The big left tackle’s engagement and commitment reportedly waned once it became clear that injuries would prevent him from reaching the playing-time incentives in his contract. Brown’s deal includes $6.5 million in snap count bonuses, and he won’t earn any of that money.

It’s a disappointing downturn for a player who was mostly healthy and playing well for the first eight weeks of the season. Brown missed four of New England’s last eight games and has made just one start since Halloween.

Asked why Brown, who is an impending free agent, did not suit up against Buffalo, Belichick said the Patriots “activated the players we wanted to play.”

Mike Onwenu also is set to hit free agency for the first time, so the Patriots are at risk of losing both of their starting tackles this offseason.

5. Keion White is beginning to emerge
The second-round edge rusher is finishing his largely nondescript rookie season strong. And Sunday’s game might have been White’s best as a pro. The powerful Georgia Tech product repeatedly harassed Allen, even if most of his impact plays didn’t show up on the stat sheet.

White wasn’t able to seamlessly replace Matthew Judon the way New England hoped he might after Judon’s October injury, but he’s shown considerable growth in the back half of the season and could be a real factor in Year 2. If he continues on this trajectory, White and weekly standout Christian Barmore are going to be a nightmare for opposing offensive lines next season.

More Patriots coverage from pats pulpit

What New England can learn from Super Bowl champion Chiefs

Updated Patriots coaching tracker

How Chiefs solidified dynasty status

6. Jalen Reagor probably should have been returning kickoffs earlier
Ty Montgomery handled those duties for much of this season and was largely ineffective. Reagor has been a clear upgrade. The fourth-year wideout is averaging 34.3 yards per return on his six runbacks and delivered one of the biggest special teams plays of the season on Sunday, returning Buffalo’s opening kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown.

The value of kick returners is greatly diminished in the modern NFL, but the Patriots have to be kicking themselves for not giving Reagor a look there sooner.

7. Chad Ryland regressed
Ryland’s game-winning 56-yard field goal in Denver looked like a potential springboard for the struggling rookie kicker. So much for that.

The fourth-round draft pick missed from 47 yards against Buffalo and had another miss from 53 that was negated by a delay of game penalty. His 62.5% field-goal success rate is the worst in the league. He’s misfired on nine of his 25 field-goal attempts, and seven of his shanks came from inside 50 yards.

There’s no use in booting out Ryland this late in the season, and his draft status earned him a longer leash than other kickers in his position would have. But the Patriots surely will bring in competition for him this offseason and make him earn his spot on the 2024 roster.