Patriots Draft Outlook: Key New Details Revealed On Pick Range

Many Patriots fans are simultaneously hopeful about landing a top-three pick and worried about tumbling down the draft board. And it’s true that how New England fares in Sunday’s home game against the Jets will go a long way toward determining its spot in the draft.

But after spending far too much time in Pro Football Network’s draft-order simulator, we can put some of those fears to rest.

The 4-12 Patriots are locked into a top-five pick in the draft. There is no way for either the Los Angeles Chargers or the Tennessee Titans (both with five victories) to win a tiebreaker over New England.

Furthermore, the No. 1 pick already has been locked up by the Chicago Bears, who will receive it from the Carolina Panthers. So, after Sunday’s game against New York, the Patriots will hold a pick somewhere between Nos. 2 and 5.

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Here’s the current top five, via Tankathon:

(Note: Strength of schedule is the first draft-order tiebreaker, with the team with the lower opponents’ winning percentage receiving the higher pick. The next three tiebreakers are divisional record, conference record and head-to-head.)

1. Chicago Bears, via 2-14 Carolina Panthers (.518 SOS)
2. Washington Commanders, 4-12 (.515 SOS)
3. New England Patriots, 4-12 (.518 SOS)
4. Arizona Cardinals, 4-12 (.562 SOS)
5. New York Giants, 5-11 (.511 SOS)

New England already has clinched a tiebreaker over the Cardinals. The Patriots also will be locked into a top-three pick if they lose to the Jets on Sunday.

Beyond that, it’s all very headache-inducing. With SOS as the most important variable, these five games all could impact how things shake out with the Patriots, Commanders and Giants:

— Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
— Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
— Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
— Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
— Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints.

The ideal result depends on what pick the Patriots are playing for and whether you’re rooting against Washington or New York. You can view an exhaustive breakdown in the tweet below:

I just spent far too much time in the @PFN365 draft-order simulator (https://t.co/1KI8AP8Y5L).

Unless their system is wrong, these things are true about #Patriots draft outlook:

1. It is impossible for Chargers or Titans to pass Patriots in SOS. New England is locked into a…

— Dakota Randall (@DakRandall) January 2, 2024

Yeah, it’s a lot to think about. And did we mention Sunday could mark Bill Belichick’s final game with the Patriots?

Buckle up and get ready for a weird, confusing weekend.