Betting Against Tom Brady Typically Was Foolish Decision For Bettors

Brady was the closet thing to a sure thing

by

January 29

Sometimes, it seemed like betting against Tom Brady might have been a good idea. There’s just no way he could cover that spread even against that team. Betting against the legendary quarterback was almost always a bad idea, though.

Brady, it appears, is finally calling it a career. The former New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback reportedly is retiring, and a collective sigh of relief could be heard out of the football betting community Saturday afternoon.

If you just spent Brady’s entire career betting on him with both the Patriots and Bucs, you would have turned a tidy profit. That was especially true for Brady’s absolutely historic run in New England.

“Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots were a sports betting dynasty we may never see again,” VSiN’s Ben Fawkes tweeted Saturday.

“They were 189-128-7 ATS (59.6%) despite being favored by an average line of 5.8 points.”

Of course, the Patriots weren’t always the clear, obvious (and typically) heavy favorites. When Brady and the Patriots won their first Super Bowl at the conclusion of the 2001 season, they did so as 14-point underdogs against the St. Louis Rams. The only point spread bigger than that in the history of the Super Bowl came all the way back in 1969 when Joe Namath and the New York Jets covered and won outright as 18-point underdogs against the Baltimore Colts.

Brady and the Patriots did, however, lose the Super Bowl and a perfect season in 2007-08 when they were shocked by the New York Giants as 12.5-point favorites. Everyone is entitled to a bad day, though.

Tom Brady retires?

Prior to the 2021 season, Brady’s second with the Bucs, Bookies.com did a deep dive on the QB’s profitability over the course of his career. According to their research, a bettor wagering $100 on Brady’s team over the course of his career would have been up $4,770.90 entering this past season. Not a bad little ROI.

There’s also this ridiculous nugget from Action Network: In Brady’s final 18 seasons, his teams were never any worse than 12-1 to win the Super Bowl. Many times, they were shorter than that. For someone who won seven Super Bowls, there wasn’t much real value on betting him in the preseason which obviously is insane.

And if Brady is actually done, the Bucs’ bleak future without Brady will certainly be reflected in the betting market.

Of course, the evolution and emergence of live betting also gave bettors chances to cash in on Brady’s most remarkable comebacks. According to SportsLine.com, the Patriots were +1100 (bet $100 to win $1100) on the live moneyline in Super Bowl LI when they fell behind 28-3. According to the same story, the Patriots got as high as 16-1 on the live line when Julio Jones made his insane catch on the sideline in New England territory.

As we all know, the Falcons puked all over themselves from there, and Brady orchestrated the greatest comeback in NFL history, much to the delight of those willing to take a shot on him when it looked grim.

That was typically a good idea in Brady’s historic career.

Thumbnail photo via Kim Klement/.USA TODAY Sports Images

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