Why Aaron Rodgers, Jets Are Awful Season-Long Bet Entering 2023

There has never been a season in the history of the New York Jets where expectations were higher than they will be entering the 2023 season.

Even in 1968, when Joe Namath and the Jets shocked the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III, they did so in stunning fashion with the AFL champions toppling the NFL champs as nearly 20-point underdogs. Winning the Super Bowl was not exactly the expectation way back then.

Fast-forward to 2023, however, and the Jets are the talk of the town. Their ascent began last year, but they were missing the most important piece in sports: quarterback.

Enter Aaron Rodgers. The four-time NFL MVP made the Jets instant Super Bowl contenders. New York was 28-1 to win it all the morning after Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII. Now, as the 2023 campaign approaches, only six teams have shorter championship odds than the Jets at 18-1.

NEW YORK JETS 2023 ODDS (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Super Bowl: +1800
AFC: +1000
AFC East: +250
Aaron Rodgers MVP: +1600

Bettors who got a piece of the Jets in the 30-1 neighborhood have to feel good about those tickets. And while it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Jets finally break through again and win the Super Bowl with Rodgers operating the controls, there’s plenty of reason to believe this might not go as well as Gang Green hopes. To that point, chasing Jets futures at this point seems questionable at best.

On paper, the Jets are obviously a better team. The Jets finished the 2022 season ranked 16th in total DVOA behind an elite defense that was the third-ranked unit in the entire NFL. That defense won’t see much of a dropoff in 2023. The offense was the issue, of course. The Jets squandered a seemingly secured playoff spot by dropping six straight to end the season. In that losing streak, the Jets allowed more than 20 points just twice. Go farther, and they lost eight of their final 10 games despite eight games in which they held their opponents to an average of 18 points per game.

With league-average quarterback play they would have made the playoffs. Now, with Rodgers, it’s easy to see why hopes are even higher than that — even at his advanced age of 39.

The problem with the Jets, though, is a lot has to go right. Start with Rodgers. His production took a major dip in 2022, albeit with a worse supporting cast and a broken thumb that dogged him for much of the season. Quarterbacks not named Tom Brady typically don’t get better at 40, which is what Rodgers turns Dec. 2. Again, something in between 2021 Rodgers (37 touchdowns, four interceptions) and 2022 (26 touchdowns, 12 picks) is still better than Wilson. But is it enough?

This is also the first time Rodgers will play the majority of his games on artificial turf for a season. We’ve already seen him deal with a calf issue during camp, and he had various lower body ailments creep up in recent years. Compound that with questions on the offensive line. Few teams have as much talent up front as the Jets, but it hasn’t exactly played out that way. Mekhi Becton is a first-round tackle but one who missed 33 of the Jets’ last 34 games. Big-money signing Duane Brown opened camp on the PUP list. There are issues at center, too. Early reports out of camp aren’t overly inspiring, and as ESPN’s “Get Up” pointed out Monday, Jets quarterbacks have had just 2.3 seconds to throw on dropbacks in two preseason games, the least amount of time in the NFL. Here’s another one to consider from ESPN’s Rich Cimini: Over the last three seasons, Rodgers has the 28th QBR when the defense gets a pass-rush win on a play, and third when there isn’t one.

Growing pains seem likely, too. Rodgers feels comfortable with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who might have the longest QB-coordinator leash in the league. Rodgers’ career largely was resurrected by Matt LaFleur’s offensive refresh in Green Bay. If Rodgers is left to his own devices in New York, and the line can’t block for him, it might not matter how good the Jets’ offensive arsenal is (and it might be elite).

All of that should be compounded by the schedule, too. In the first six games of the season alone, the Jets play five teams whose defenses were top-10 by DVOA last season. The lone exception is the defending champion Chiefs. Granted, the Jets had a top-five defense of their own in 2022, but there’s not going to be a ton of margin for error on this schedule, and that’s especially considering the Jets play in arguably the NFL’s best division and the far superior conference of the two.

Maybe it all breaks right, and this is a match made in heaven. But chasing the number right now seems slightly ill-advised when there are teams you already know are established Super Bowl contenders. That the Jets are only +110 to miss the playoffs tells you they’re far from a sure thing.

Bettors who want a piece of the Jets might be better off avoiding the “Hard Knocks” hype and waiting a few weeks — perhaps even the Week 6 bye — to see if they can catch an inflated number on New York and buy low on a late-season push once Rodgers gets a little more comfortable and the schedule gets a little easier.