Patriots-Bills Betting Preview: Trends, Prop, Pick For Week 7
New England has found very little answers on how to stop Josh Allen since 2020
Patriots fans and bettors face a new reality that hasn’t been seen in over two decades: New England is a bad football team.
The Patriots are bottom-10 in nearly every offensive statistic and the second-worst scoring team in the NFL, only ahead of the New York Giants. New England is the worst team in the league in expected points added per play, and it is the worst special teams unit in the league through Week 6, according to Pro Football Focus.
New England’s defense statistically is passable but mounting injuries and playing behind has made handicappers lose respect for the unit. It’s why the Buffalo Bills are a consensus 8.5-point favorite, per NESN Bets data. That’s the most considerable underdog the Patriots have been to the Bills in over two decades.
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As the NFL trade deadline nears, the talk around New England isn’t about the playoffs but rather who will get sold and whether Caleb Williams or Drake Maye will fall into Bill Belichick’s lap — assuming he sticks around next season.
The Bills haven’t looked dominant in the past two weeks, but for the first time in over two decades, the Patriots are a get-right spot for Buffalo.
Here’s all you need to know about Sunday’s Patriots-Bills matchup from a betting perspective, with lines and props from FanDuel Sportsbook.
(-8.5) Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Total: 40.5
When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Mass.
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BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
After a London game and “Sunday Night Football,” Josh Allen gets normal rest. Allen is 31-18-3 against the spread when the Bills get seven days rest, according to Action Network. Allen is 7-2-1 ATS in his career against the Patriots, which is his best record against AFC East opponents. Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its past seven road games against the Patriots, according to VSiN. And the Bills have gone under the total in nine of their past 10 road games. The Patriots have hit the under in five of the past six games Mac Jones starts.
PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Mac Jones under 181.5 passing yards (-114) — Wind could be a factor this Sunday, and unlike Allen’s rocket arm, that might actually matter for Jones, who barely reached 200 yards last week against the Las Vegas Raiders. Von Miller has been quiet since his return from injury, but he should feast on an inept offensive line. Buffalo’s secondary isn’t one to be afraid of, but a couple of tipped passes could help create turnovers or stall drives for the Patriots.
BILLS PROP TO CONSIDER
Bills -4.5 second-half spread (+100) — One trend not mentioned above and saved for this section is that Buffalo has been a really good second-half team against New England. In the Allen era, the Bills are 54-33-3 against the second-half spread, according to Action Network. He’s the second-most profitable QB on the second-half spread since 2005, and Allen is 7-2-1 ATS vs. Patriots in the second half, which is his most profitable opponent.
PICK: Bills -8.5 (-110)
This is a big number, but Buffalo has dominated the Patriots since Tom Brady left New England. Since the crazy wind game on “Monday Night Football” in the 2021 season, Buffalo beat New England by double digits in the next four matchups, including a 47-17 beatdown in the playoffs. As mentioned above, the Bills haven’t looked like their normal selves and nearly lost to Tyrod Taylor and the Giants last Sunday. But a London layover could be the excuse for that, and Buffalo should get back on track and assert itself as one of the best teams in the league and add to the Patriots’ downward slide.
