So, what’s the reward for losing the greatest quarterback in NFL history?
A third-round draft pick, based on projections made this week by NFL Media’s Lance Zierlein.
The Patriots experienced an eventful exodus in free agency this offseason, highlighted, of course, by Tom Brady’s departure. This will make it awfully difficult for New England to continue its run of success in 2020, but the team is positioned to land multiple compensatory picks in the 2021 NFL Draft as a result of the developments.
As Zierlein explained, teams are awarded compensatory picks between Rounds 3 and 7 based on an NFL formula that takes into account average salary per year (APY), snap count and postseason awards for players who left the team to sign elsewhere in free agency. (Read more about the comp pick process here.)
Teams must end up with more qualifying free agents lost than gained in a particular year to be eligible for such comp picks, and Bill Belichick has been a master at maximizing New England’s haul in recent years.
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The Patriots received a league-high four compensatory picks — the maximum allowed by the system — in the 2020 NFL Draft after an imbalanced 2019 offseason in which they lost offensive tackles Trent Brown and LaAdrian Waddle, defensive end Trey Flowers, defensive tackle Malcom Brown, wide receivers Cordarrelle Patterson and Chris Hogan and cornerback Eric Rowe while signing only running back Brandon Bolden.
The trend could continue after the 2020 season — when the comp picks are determined by the NFL Management Council’s formula — thanks to the Patriots losing multiple high-profile free agents (Brady, Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins) without adding anyone significant in free agency this offseason.
Zierlein projects the Patriots to add three compensatory picks in the 2021 NFL Draft: one third-rounder and two fourth-rounders.
Here’s his explanation:
The formula is very straightforward here, with the Patriots losing five qualifiers and collecting two free agents with very modest contracts to cancel out the lower-end free agents. The contracts for Brady and Van Noy will clearly garner a third-round pick and a fourth-rounder, respectively, while Collins is likely to bring in a fourth.
Things could change in the coming months, for whatever reason, but this projection at least gives an idea as to what New England might receive pick-wise after a questionable offseason that saw Brady, among others, take his talents elsewhere.
