If the Patriots add a running back this offseason, many assume it’ll be a third-down “pace” back.
… But what if New England swings big? What if it goes out and trades for arguably the best running back on Planet Earth?
Bally Sports’ Michael Silver on Monday reported that the Tennessee Titans were shopping Derrick Henry last week at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. Henry is entering the final year of his current contract and is due $11 million next season. The Titans would save $6.2 million in salary cap space if they trade Henry before June 1.
On the surface, the Patriots don’t need much help at running back.
Rhamondre Stevenson emerged as an every-down force in 2022, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he has the best season of any running back in 2023. New England also still has passing-down back Ty Montgomery under contract for another season and a pair of recent draft picks in Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris who are unproven but showed promise during their rookie campaigns. Of the two, Strong is more likely to see a big role next season.
Perhaps more than anything, the Patriots need a quality back who can lighten Stevenson’s load in 2023. Stevenson saw a whopping 279 touches this season and admitted to being worn down by the end. New England can’t run him into the ground again.
Of course, the Patriots could accomplish this simply by re-signing Damien Harris, who’s scheduled to hit free agency next week. They also could go after a similar but likely cheaper option, like Dont’a Foreman.
But neither of those players is in the same galaxy as Henry, who also still is a cut above Stevenson despite being 29 years old.
A Henry-Stevenson backfield would be borderline unstoppable, even if the Patriots don’t solve all their issues on the offensive line. Splitting carries would enable both backs to be fresh during the winter months at a time when opposing defenders wear down.
Regardless of what kind of quarterback play they receive from Mac Jones, the Patriots would be able to hang their hat on a potentially (and historically) dominant running game and very good defense. That should be good enough to win against most teams, especially if New England cleans up the coaching dysfunction that undermined the offense in 2022.
And yes, Henry still is that good. The three-time Pro Bowler entered 2022 with some injury and durability concerns but wound up playing in 16 games while leading the NFL with 349 rushing attempts. Henry racked up 1,538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns to go along with 33 catches for 398 yards. He still is one of the more imposing offensive forces in the league.
As for the likelihood of a trade, it’s hard to envision such a deal taking place.
The Patriots have too many other holes to fill before spending $11 million on a running back. And the Titans probably would raise the asking price for a fellow AFC contender, never mind the potentially weird Mike Vrabel-Bill Belichick dynamic. Plus, New England already has devoted significant draft capital toward running backs in recent years.
But how much would it really take to pull off a Henry trade? Teams don’t like paying running backs or using first-round picks on them these days, let alone trading first-round picks for an expensive back. A second- and fifth-round pick might be enough to get the deal done, but that’s pure speculation.
If the Patriots are going to part with those kinds of assets in a trade, they probably should do so for a receiver, linebacker, cornerback or offensive tackle. However, the immediate, tangible impact of a Henry trade might trump any of those acquisitions, if only for one season.
And hey, Matthew Judon recently hyped up New England while speaking to Henry at the 2023 Pro Bowl Games. For all we know, the Patriots could be one of Henry’s preferred destinations.
At the end of the day, the idea of a Patriots-Henry trade feels like a fantasy. But if you squint hard enough, you can see making at least some sense.
