The Boston Celtics will have their upcoming playoff run conclude just like it did last season: They will walk off the court without an NBA title in hand.
Yes, the Celtics are among a select group of favorites to come away with the hardware in June and have the experience of playing in the NBA Finals. They also have arguably the best duo in the entire league in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to go along with a strong supporting cast. So, it would not be a surprise if they get right on the verge of a championship.
But there are several factors for why that image of Tatum hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy will remain just a dream inside the heads of Celtics fans. Let’s dig into the four reasons why the Celtics won’t win the 2023 NBA Finals:
Joe Mazzulla will get in the way
For the most part, coaching in the NBA doesn’t hold a great deal of weight compared to other professional sports. But that’s in the regular season. In the playoffs, coaching gets magnified with what adjustments they can make in-game and from one contest to the next over the course of a best-of-seven series.
And through an 82-game sample size, Mazzulla hasn’t inspired the most confidence that he will have the coaching edge at any point as he goes through his first playoffs at the helm of the Celtics. He froze on the sideline in the waning seconds during a late January loss to the Miami Heat, refusing to call a timeout even with Boston disjointed on the floor. Maybe he learned from his mistake or perhaps he will repeat it, succumbing to the pressure that ramps up exponentially in the playoffs.
Mazzulla seems to be playing with fire with the timeout strategy he has deployed all season. Calling a timeout at the right time, or holding onto it, is a fine line that can prove extremely costly if Mazzulla fumbles the situation.
Boston’s supporting cast will shrink when it matters most
The Celtics have better depth than they did a season ago, especially with NBA Sixth Man of the Year candidate Malcolm Brogdon leading the charge for the reserve unit.
While Boston’s bench might have moments where it leads the Celtics to a victory — like Grant Williams did in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals last year — there will also be times when they fail to provide adequate support to Tatum and Brown.
Williams, although able to laugh off the moment, already shriveled like a bag of grapes in a pressure-packed situation during the regular season when he missed two free throws at the end of regulation on the road against the Cleveland Cavaliers. What happens if Williams finds himself in a similar situation in the playoffs? Williams also faded in last year’s NBA Finals, not scoring more than three points in each of the final three games of the series against the Golden State Warriors.
Derrick White has been an unsung hero for the Celtics this season and really should be considered for one of the NBA’s All-Defensive teams. But he showed last season in the Finals that the moment can get to him, too. He shot just 1-for-10 from the floor over the final two, must-win games against the Warriors.
If those types of performances happen again in the spotlight, it might not matter what Tatum and Brown do.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks out for revenge
The most legitimate threat to the Celtics making a second consecutive Finals appearance is an almost mythical Greek figure in Antetokounmpo.
The Celtics defend Antetokounmpo just as well as anybody, but the two-time MVP still puts up eye-popping numbers. He turned in a herculean effort in last year’s playoff series with Boston, averaging 33.9 points, 14.7 rebounds, 7.1 assists and 1.1 blocks per game. Looking to get back at the Celtics after they bounced the Bucks from the postseason last year, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Antetokounmpo turns in an even bigger output if Boston and Milwaukee meet in the Eastern Conference finals.
And if Antetokounmpo just matches that production, it should go a lot farther with a healthy Khris Middleton beside him. Trying to contain Antetokounmpo will be another sizeable task for the Celtics if the two sides face off again. That challenge is made tougher, too, with the Bucks having home-court advantage unlike last year.
Turnovers turn into a nightmare again
The blueprint on how to stop a Tatum and Brown-led Celtics offense came out in the playoffs last season. Teams will pressure them defensively and look for the two stars to cough up the ball, which they did with regularity during Boston’s run to the Finals.
Tatum turned the ball over 100 times in the postseason last year, becoming the first player in NBA history to ever do that. Brown wasn’t too far behind that total, committing a total of 74, including turning it over 3.3 times per game in the Finals.
Despite their brilliance during this regular season, Tatum and Brown both gave the ball away plenty. Brown recorded a career-high 2.9 turnovers per contest while Tatum registered the same mark for the second straight season. Both marks were near the bottom of the league.
If the star-studded duo hasn’t learned from their mistakes and they don’t take care of the basketball, it could ultimately prevent the Celtics from winning a title.
