Bulletin-Board Material? ESPN Gives Prediction Red Sox Fans Won’t Like

The Boston Red Sox are very much in the American League playoff conversation.

They’re a ways back in the AL East, behind the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays as they embark on a 10-game road trip. But the third wild-card spot remains within reach. Plus, Boston is getting healthier, with Trevor Story, Chris Sale and Garrett Whitlock all returning over the last week.

That said, not everyone is sold on the Red Sox’s postseason chances.

ESPN’s David Schoenfield published a piece last week examining the wild-card contenders. He separated them into three tiers and predicted which teams ultimately will reach the playoffs.

Schoenfield placed the Red Sox into Tier III (the “Hanging by a thread” tier) and predicted Boston will fall short of the postseason.

“They’re hanging in there, but it still seems like they’re chasing better,” Schoenfield wrote for ESPN.com. “Chris Sale just returned to the rotation, which is now probably in the best spot it has been in all season. The Red Sox are heading out on a 10-game road trip against the Nationals, Yankees and Astros followed by a homestand against the Dodgers and Astros, so these next two and a half weeks will need to go well to make September matter. I think they will, but then I think Boston falls short.”

The Red Sox entered Monday 11 games behind the Orioles in the AL East but just three games back of the third wild-card spot. They’ll need to leapfrog the Seattle Mariners en route to nabbing one of the places occupied by the Rays, Houston Astros or Blue Jays, but Boston showed life against the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers to cap its recent homestand.

FanGraphs gave the Red Sox a 16.1% chance of making the playoffs as of Monday. And Schoenfield’s skepticism is by no means baseless when you consider how inconsistent Boston has been for most of the 2023 season.

The arrow might be pointing up for the Red Sox, though. They’re not your typical “underdogs,” per se, but they definitely have a chance to prove some people wrong.