MLB Odds: Rafael Devers Still Ridiculous AL MVP Bargain

Good luck trying to make a better all-around case for Rafael Devers to win the American League MVP award than we saw Thursday night.

The Red Sox slugger singlehandedly kept Boston in its series opener with the New York Yankees. After a Josh Donaldson grand slam helped the Bombers build an early lead, Devers got his team back into the game with not one but two home runs off 2021 American League Cy Young Award runner-up Gerrit Cole.

Devers, simply put, was the only chance the Red Sox had to win the game. On a night where the rest of the offense once again went cold against a division rival, Devers had another career night. That he did so with Aaron Judge watching from the other dugout underscores the ridiculous value still to be found on a Devers bet for AL MVP this season.

Yes, NESN betting analyst Sam Panayotovich touched on this already recently. But now might be the time to move on Devers, who currently is a 20-1 relative long shot at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Given how the rest of the market is playing out, that number might not last. FanDuel has him down to 16-1, and Devers is an even shorter 10-1 at PointsBet.

The case for Devers is obvious. He’s been arguably the best all-around player in baseball in the first half of the season. He currently sits in a three-way tie with Paul Goldschmidt and Manny Machado for the highest wins above replacement in either league, per FanGraphs’ metric. Devers’ 4.4 WAR is followed closely by Judge, the odds-on -120 favorite at the moment, at 4.3.

Devers’ wRC+ is about even with Judge (175 to 173), as is his wOBA (.418 to .413). Judge obviously has the considerable edge in home runs, as he tries to run down Roger Maris with 30 home runs at the halfway point. On the flip side to that, though, Devers’ .330 batting average is third-best in the sport and 43 points higher than Judge’s.

Of course, if Judge hits his 60 home runs and the Yankees win 115 games, he’ll probably be the MVP. He’s the favorite for a reason. But it was interesting that Judge missed Thursday night’s series opener, apparently dealing with some lower-body discomfort. Ultimately, it could be an abundance of precaution. However, Judge doesn’t have the strongest track record when it comes to staying healthy, while Devers has missed just 18 games since the start of the 2019 season. Just three players in the sport have more plate appearances in that stretch than Devers, so he’ll certainly get his chances to add to his totals.

We’ve said plenty times before these awards are narrative-based, already admitting it’s Judge’s to win if he and the Yankees both break records. But if they don’t, and New York completes a relatively quiet march to the AL East crown, the narrative could actually flip. The Red Sox certainly should make the playoffs, but if they have to fight for it the entire way, more attention will be paid to them. If Devers makes the most of those opportunities and it propels Boston into the postseason, that could go a long way in the voting.

One thing is for sure, though: If Devers continues to perform like he did Thursday night, those longer odds aren’t going to be around much longer.