How Matthew Judon’s Sack Odds Reflect Expected Production For Patriots

Matthew Judon recorded 12 1/2 sacks last year

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Patriots linebacker Matthew Judon put together a pretty impressive first season in New England last year.

Judon not only led the Patriots with 12.5 sacks, it also established a new career high for the defensive stalwart.

The big question now for the 29-year-old as he gets set for his second season with the Patriots is can he duplicate, or even surpass, those results? It certainly won’t be easy to topple the career-best mark, and oddsmakers don’t see Judon having the same type of production he did last year.

DraftKings Sportsbook set Judon’s over/under for total sacks this upcoming season at 10.25. While that figure isn’t exactly shocking, the odds placed on the Under reveal more of the story.

Judon has -130 odds to register Under 10.25 sacks, meaning bookmakers see that as a more likely outcome than Judon hitting the Over, which has +100 odds. A $100 bet on the Under would net only a payout of $176.92 while the same wager on the Over would return a payout of $200.

None of it is good news for a Patriots defense that will need Judon to look like the Pro Bowl player he was a year ago for the unit to be successful, especially with New England integrating new pieces at linebacker and in the secondary.

The odds though could be a reflection of how Judon faded down the stretch last season. He recorded no sacks in the Patriots last four games, which includes their humiliating playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills.

Last season was the only time Judon registered double-digit sacks in his career, and oddsmakers see his production taking a downturn this year.

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