NFL Picks: Week 17 Best-Bet Parlay Built Around Giants Beatdown
And we could see two banged-up defenses struggle in Foxboro
The New Year’s resolution for the NESNBets best-bet NFL parlay is simple: Just win, baby.
We got back to our heartbreaking ways in Week 16, hitting on two of our three legs. The Buffalo Bills had no problems with the bitter cold in Chicago and almost hit the over by themselves in a 35-13 beatdown of the Bears.
It would be disappointing if we weren’t so used to it by now.
Let’s get onto NFL Week 17 with our best-bet parlay based on consensus betting lines from the NESNBets live odds page.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots OVER 41
When the schedule came out, you look at Jan. 1 game between the Dolphins and Patriots in Foxboro and think weather will be a factor. Not this year, as forecasts are calling for unseasonably mild temperatures Sunday. That bodes well for both offenses. There’s plenty of talk this week about Teddy Bridgewater having to step in for Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa’s ceiling clearly is much higher, but he was struggling in a big way recently. Bridgewater gets a full week to practice and the Dolphins will be able to build a game plan suited to his strengths. A major focus of that game plan should be getting the ball to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and letting them go to work. The Patriots are all kinds of banged up in the secondary, making a tough task all the more difficult. The Dolphins have their share of defensive injuries, too, most notably Bradley Chubb among five defensive regulars who were limited or didn’t practice this week.
(-5.5) New York Giants vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Giants have something to play for, and the Colts — after being embarrassed on Monday night at home — certainly do not. Indy was just shut down by a Chargers team that is comparable to the Giants, and that was a home game for the Colts. Now, they have to go outside to take on a well-coached Giants team on the road. It’s a really bad matchup for Nick Foles, too. The Colts quarterback was miserable in his first start of the season, especially when pressured. The Chargers sacked him seven times, and Foles completed just two of seven passes under pressure with a pair of interceptions. The Giants, by the way, have the NFL’s top pressure rate, tied with the Patriots. New York gets pressure on one of every four dropbacks.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 40.5
The books are finally making the adjustment on Bucs totals, but this could be yet another UNDER given how Tampa Bay is trending. Eleven of the Bucs’ 15 games have seen 40 points or less between the two teams, and it happened five times in Tampa Bay’s last seven games. The two games in that stretch in which it didn’t came against Cincinnati and San Francisco, two top-10 offenses. Carolina is not a top-10 offense, ranking 26th by DVOA even after rushing for more than 300 yards last week. Four of the Panthers’ last six games saw less than 40 points scored, and that doesn’t include their first matchup against Tampa Bay where the Panthers won 21-3. Tampa Bay has a top-10 defense, and the Panthers’ unit has improved since making the change at head coach. There’s a lot of reason to believe this will be yet another low-scoring rock fight.
Payout: 1 unit to win 5.96
To date: Down 5.13 units
