The 2023 schedule is being released, and sportsbooks will see no shortage of money come in on regular season win totals over the next few months.
We have grouped all 32 NFL teams by their win totals for the upcoming season and tried to find one over/under pick from each tier.
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
4.5
Arizona Cardinals (-110 over, -110 under)
UNDER 4.5 WINS
In a group of their own, the Cardinals are expected to have the fewest wins in the NFL. I would wait until the “Fewest Wins” market comes out and bet the Cardinals there for some better value at plus money.
6.5
Washington Commanders (-120 over, +100 under)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+110 over, -130 under)
Indianapolis Colts (-140 over, +120 under)
Houston Texans (+110 over, -130 under)
UNDER 6.5 WINS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-130)
I’ll keep this simple. Tampa Bay — with Tom Brady at the helm — finished the 2022 season with eight wins. Tom Brady has retired (again), leaving Baker Mayfield as his successor. Mayfield finished with the worst QBR in the league last season. Even with Brady not having his best year, the seven-time Super Bowl champ was certainly worth a win or two (or three?), making seven wins seem out of reach.
7.5
Tennessee Titans (+110 over, -130 under)
New England Patriots (-120 over, +100 under)
Las Vegas Raiders (+130 over, -150 under)
Los Angeles Rams (+125 over, -145 under)
Green Bay Packers (+120 over, -140 under)
Chicago Bears (-125 over, +115 under)
Carolin Panthers (-135 over, +115 under)
OVER 7.5 WINS: Carolina Panthers (-135)
Admittedly, it feels risky betting on a rookie QB, even if he was the No.1 overall pick. That being said, Bryce Young has the luxury of playing in a breeze of a division in the NFC South. Sharp Football analysis released their 2023 NFL Strength of Schedule based on Vegas’ forecasted win totals and the Panthers have the third-easiest schedule. They finished with seven wins last season, just one less than the Brady-led Bucs. Brady is gone, the Saints have spiraled without head coach Sean Payton, and the Falcons have several good pieces but are far from a complete team. New Panthers head coach Frank Reich joined the team with the goal of creating “stability at quarterback” and you should feel confident in his ability to do that, considering his track record with Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz (in their prime).
8.5
Seattle Seahawks (-130 over, +110 under)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-120 over, +110 under)
New York Giants (+120 over, -140 under)
Minnesota Vikings (-120 over, +100 under)
Denver Broncos (-110 over, -110 under)
Atlanta Falcons (+110 over, -130 under)
UNDER 8.5 WINS: Denver Broncos (-110)
Broncos nation rejoiced when Russell Wilson announced he would be their new signal-caller. Then, they won five games, tied for the fifth-fewest in the league. The veteran quarterback played his worst season by far with a QBR just under 37 — half of what it was his rookie season with Seattle in 2012. Only four quarterbacks graded lower than Wilson on that scale: Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield. Sure, they have some young and talented weapons but I find it hard to believe that the mere existence of Sean Payton as head coach means they win four more games.
9.5
New York Jets (-145 over, +125 under)
New Orleans Saints (+105 over, -125 under)
Miami Dolphins (+100 over, -120 under)
Los Angeles Chargers (-110 over, -110 under)
Detroit Lions (-150 over, +130 under)
Dallas Cowboys (-130 over, +110 under)
Cleveland Browns (+120 over, -150 under)
Baltimore Ravens (-120 over, +100 under)
OVER 9.5 WINS: Baltimore Ravens (-120)
Lamar Jackson got paid, going from foot-out-the-door to “I want to throw for like 6,000 yards with the weapons we have.” Will he do that? Considering the most he has thrown is 3,127 yards (in 2019), probably not. I do like the confidence, though, and I get it. This will be the best receiving corps he has worked with in his NFL career, having targets in Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews. The team finished last season 10-7, and that was without Lamar for five games. Baltimore is 49-21 all-time when the former MVP starts and nothing about this team’s makeup makes me think they could or would do any worse than last year.
10.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-150 over, +130 under)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+125 over, -145 under)
Buffalo Bills (-140 over, +120 under)
OVER 10.5 WINS: Jacksonville Jaguars (+125)
This is more of a value pick since I don’t love laying the juice with the Eagles or Bills. The Jaguars are seeing a ton of respect from the books and sharps ahead of this 2023 season. They came out on top of the AFC South with 9 wins last year and I agree with the oddsmakers in thinking they take the next step this season. Doug Pederson seemed to be exactly what this team needed to get the ball rolling, and we saw that come to fruition down the stretch. The Jags won six of their last seven regular-season games and kept the Chiefs within a touchdown in the AFC divisional playoffs.
11.5
San Francisco 49ers (+120 over, -140 under)
Kansas City Chiefs (-140 over, +120 under)
Cincinnati Bengals (+100 over, -120 under)
UNDER 11.5 WINS: San Francisco 49ers (+120)
The 49ers have all the pieces they need when it comes to defense as well as weapons on the ground and through the air. The issue is, they have questions at the most important position on the field: quarterback. Brock Purdy shocked the football world a year ago. The final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft brought his team to a 6-0 regular-season finish and led them to two postseason victories. I might feel differently about this win total if Mr. Irrelevant was ready to come back under center in Week 1, but his health remains up in the air after tearing his UCL in the NFC Championship Game. Do I want to put my trust in an unproven Trey Lance or washed-up Sam Darnold? Not so much.
