NFL Odds: Browns Better But AFC North Presents Brutal Challenge

What can you say about the Cleveland Browns aside from the fact they will certainly be one of the 32 teams participating in the 2023 NFL season?

Cleveland had a painfully mediocre 2022 season in which it went 7-10 and missed the playoffs for the third straight year. It was a relatively quiet offseason for the Browns — especially by comparison following all the headlines Deshaun Watson generated last spring and summer.

Watson obviously is the focal point of the Browns and the entire reason for the slightest bit of optimism entering 2023. That optimism, as limited as it might be, stems from the hope that the quarterback will play his first full season since 2020. Contract issues and legal troubles cost him the entire 2021 season, and a suspension cost him all but 11 games in 2022. When he finally did take the field, it was hardly impressive, and he certainly didn’t look like the sort of player for whom the Browns would want to trade three first-round picks.

If, in his first full season in Kevin Stefanski’s offense, Watson looks anything like the MVP contender he was in Houston, the Browns certainly could sneak up on some people. The problem, however, might be that the AFC North is one of the most difficult divisions in all of football.

As such, another mediocre season looks like the most likely outcome for the 2023 Browns.

2022 in review
7-10 overall
8-9 against the spread
8-8-1 over/under

Key offseason additions
WR Elijah Moore
WR Marquise Goodwin
DE Za’Darius Smith
CB Mike Ford
DT Dalvin Tomlinson
S Juan Thornhill
TE Jordan Akins
QB Joshua Dobbs

Key offseason losses
DE Jadeveon Clowney (still unsigned)
RB Kareem Hunt (still unsigned)
QB Jacoby Brissett
CB Greedy Williams

Look ahead to 2023 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Super Bowl: +3000
Conference: +1800
Division: +400
Win total: 9.5 (under -134)
To make playoffs: Yes +112 | No -138

2023 award contenders
MVP: Deshaun Watson +3000
Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett +600
Coach of the Year: Kevin Stefanski +2500
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ceredic Tillman +6000

2023 outlook
The Browns did have a nice offseason, all things considered. Losing a player like Clowney could hurt, but Cleveland got former Pro Bowler Za’Darius Smith for next to nothing from Minnesota, and he could fill a similar role.

They paid a pretty hefty price to give Moore a fresh start, but the 2021 second-round pick showed flashes of brilliance with the Jets, and he should fit in better with an offensive-minded team like the Browns. He ultimately could offset the loss of Hunt, one of the best pass-catching running backs in the NFL. Stefanski has hinted that Moore will be used in a variety of ways with the hopes of unlocking his potential. Cleveland should want to see Moore succeed after using a second-round pick to acquire him (and a third-rounder) from New York.

The defense, highlighted by Myles Garrett, is built for AFC North football. That unit should keep Cleveland in games.

It really all comes down to what Watson can do. Get him back anywhere near an All-Pro level, and it’s easy to see how an offense featuring Moore, Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Nick Chubb could put up points in a hurry. But there are two teams (Cincinnati and Baltimore) with better odds to win the division. Pittsburgh could be a classic “next step” team if Kenny Pickett takes his own jump.

So, while you could make the case for the Browns being poised to not only make the playoffs but win a game, it’s just as likely — and the odds say more likely — they miss the postseason completely.