It should come as no surprise that Rafael Devers is projected to be the Red Sox’s best player in 2023. After all, he’s a two-time All-Star who just signed a massive 10-year contract extension.
But Boston’s second-best player, well, that’s up for debate. And preseason Steamer projections offer an eye-opening outlook on who could be in for a big year with the Red Sox.
The Steamer projections — used by FanGraphs as its primary projection system for individual players — recently pegged Devers to post 4.5 WAR (wins above replacement) in 2023. Next on the list: newcomer Masataka Yoshida, at 3.8 WAR.
That mark ranks ahead of Alex Verdugo (2.1), Triston Casas (1.9), Kiké Hernández (1.7) and Reese McGuire (1.7). And Yoshida’s projected batting line is the reason why, as the 29-year-old outfielder wasn’t known for his defensive prowess or baserunning in Japan.
The Steamer projections have Yoshida slashing .298/.388/.479 with 19 home runs, 62 RBIs, five stolen bases and 87 runs scored in 572 plate appearances. Those numbers are buoyed by a solid 11.7% walk rate and 9.9% strikeout rate. And his projected 140 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) — 40% above league average — is even better than the 134 wRC+ projected for Devers.
These projections are lofty, to say the least. Only 13 outfielders across Major League Baseball are projected to have more WAR than Yoshida, who sits just below George Springer (4.0) and Bryan Reynolds (4.0) of the Toronto Blue Jays and Pittsburgh Pirates, respectively. Reynolds has been the subject of trade rumors this MLB offseason, with the Bucs likely requiring a haul to part with the talented 27-year-old.
Only seven outfielders are projected to match or surpass Yoshida’s 140 wRC+: Juan Soto (172), Aaron Judge (163), Yordan Alvarez (162), Kyle Tucker (148), Mike Trout (145), Julio RodrÃguez (142) and Bryce Harper (140). Mookie Betts (138) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (137) rank just below Yoshida, among outfielders, in Steamer’s wRC+ projections for the upcoming campaign.
Are these expectations for Yoshida too high? Maybe. Grouping him in with the game’s best seems a little ambitious for his first season in the United States. But the Red Sox clearly are sold on his skill set, seeing as they reportedly signed him to a five-year, $90 million contract this offseason in addition to paying a posting fee of around $15 million to the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball.
Yoshida is a $105 million wild card. But the gamble will be worthwhile if he locks down the Red Sox’s leadoff spot, as expected, and comes anywhere close to matching the Steamer projections, which take into account past performance and aging trends.
