It's hard to feel good about the Patriots when they're home and golfing while a franchise like the Jacksonville Jaguars is preparing for a second playoff game.
But, with the NFL's wild-card weekend largely in the books, let's take a glass-half-full view of New England, shall we?
The Patriots never will replicate the relentless dominance they enjoyed during the Tom Brady era, which can't be used as the standard. It's hard to envision them hanging with the Kansas City Chiefs or a fully healthy and engaged Buffalo Bills team anytime soon. However, after watching what transpired over the weekend, you could make the case that New England is far closer to going on a deep playoff run than many want to admit.
The Patriots have much to address this offseason, including fixing their offensive coaching staff and getting Mac Jones back on track. But they're closer to making noise in the postseason than they are to bottoming out, which is something not every middling NFL team can say.
Just look at the New York Giants. After finishing 4-13 in 2021, they followed first-year head coach Brian Daboll's leadership all the way to a road playoff win over Minnesota Vikings, who went 13-4 in the regular season. The most remarkable part is that New York experienced a five-win turnaround despite barely improving its roster over the offseason.
What a difference good coaching makes. Daboll changed everything for the Giants, turning a rebuilding team into one set to play in the NFC Divisional Round. They have a real shot at upsetting the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles next weekend at Lincoln Financial Field.
Consider this: New York fans and reporters now believe Daniel Jones is the answer at quarterback -- and they might be right.
Say what you want about the current state of the Patriots and the job Bill Belichick has done since Brady left, but their roster is better than that of the Giants and Belichick still is among the best coaches on the planet, if not the best. Who's to say a fresh set of eyes at offensive coordinator -- Bill O'Brien, perhaps? -- can't do the same thing for Mac Jones?
And, with Jerod Mayo apparently sticking around, New England's defense should continue improving, provided Belichick adds talent at key areas and some of the younger talent stay on an upward trajectory.
You could apply much of this logic to the Jaguars, who went 3-14 last season and now are fresh off one of the more dramatic playoff victories in NFL history. This time last year, Trevor Lawrence was considered a potential bust, and Jacksonville's reputation as a perennial loser never was stronger.
Now, Lawrence is viewed as a rising superstar and the Jags are AFC South champions whom no team wants to face in the postseason. Jacksonville, like New York, put a competent coach in charge of Lawrence's development and put its players in a position to succeed.
Is Jones as talented as Lawrence? No, but he doesn't have to be. If he reaches his ceiling, he can be more than good enough to win at a consistently high level.
As bad as the Patriots played this season, most of their issues were self-inflicted.
Matt Patricia and Joe Judge never should've been handed the keys to the offense. The special teams had enough talent to avoid finishing as the worst unit in the NFL. Kendrick Bourne shouldn't have been benched. The consistently sloppy and undisciplined play was very un-New England-like.
Despite it all, the Patriots held a third-quarter lead over the Bills in Week 18 and would've punched a playoff ticket had they sealed the deal at Highmark Stadium. Scott Zolak believes they could've made noise this postseason, let alone next year -- although that's as much of a commentary on the field as it is of the Patriots.
But therein lies the point: There's more parity in the NFL than ever before. For as good as the Chiefs, Bills and Cincinnati Bengals are, it wouldn't be shocking to see any of them lose next weekend. Just because a team is very good and has an elite quarterback doesn't mean it's about to become an unbeatable, dynastic force.
The Miami Dolphins nearly upset the Bills on Sunday with a third-string quarterback under center. The Baltimore Ravens were a yard away from holding a fourth-quarter lead over the Bengals with a backup at quarterback. The Vikings and Los Angeles Chargers still are doing Vikings and Chargers things.
Weird things happen in the playoffs. Matchups between divisional rivals can be more competitive in reality than they they are on paper, as we saw in Cincinnati and Buffalo. Teams that are stout in the trenches and at least good on defense almost always have a chance. Coaching still can be a difference-maker -- just ask Mike McDaniel.
Again, none of that is to say that Patriots, who went 1-5 against playoff teams this season and whose quarterback still hasn't won a game when the opponent scores 25-plus points, are on the cusp of winning a title. They're not. Belichick hasn't won a playoff game since Super Bowl LIII, after all.
But a championship shouldn't be the expectation in New England, at least not right now. If the Patriots win 11 games next season and make it past wild-card weekend, that should be considered real progress for a franchise that's been trying to thread the competing-while-rebuilding needle ever since Brady left.
Given how the rest of the AFC looks, and the talent already on the roster, there's no reason why the Patriots can't become next season's version of the Jaguars or Giants -- if not even better.
