Depending on how Mac Jones plays next season, the Patriots could have an awfully interesting decision to make in just over a year.
First and foremost, the Patriots must figure out whether Jones truly is the quarterback of the future in New England. The first-round pick looked the part as a rookie in 2021, but he regressed significantly as a sophomore while enduring a dysfunctional mess created by Bill Belichick's coaching hires. With Bill O'Brien now handling offensive coordinator duties, Jones is out of excuses ahead of a make-or-break third season.
Fans and pundits like to think in extremes. Will Jones stink in 2023, or will he take a Josh Allen-esque third-year leap? Either outcome probably would make the Patriots' decision on what to do with him in a year relatively straightforward. If Jones offers subpar performance, New England might cut bait; if he ascends to stardom, the Patriots will know they have their guy.
But there's a gray area in there. And if Jones finds himself in it, things could get tricky.
Jones will carry salary cap hits of $4.25 million and $4.95 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively, the final two years of his rookie contract. Those are dream numbers, even for a quarterback who to this point has been slightly above average at best. But Jones' salary would skyrocket in 2025 if the Patriots pick up his fifth-year option -- and that's a huge "if."
New England must decide whether to pick up the fifth-year option by May 2024. At a minimum, Jones' salary in 2025 would be just over $23 million (fully guaranteed), per Over The Cap's projections. If Jones earns a spot on an initial Pro Bowl roster next season, the number would balloon to roughly $30 million. (Jones' Pro Bowl nod in 2021 doesn't factor in, as he made the team as an alternate.)
Worth noting: Those figures are for the 2020 draft class. Recent trends suggest the numbers will be even higher for Jones' class.
If Jones is a straight-up Pro Bowl selection in 2023, the Patriots likely would have no qualms about picking up the fifth-year option. They might even pick up the option only to kick the tires on a lucrative contract extension a few months later, as the Buffalo Bills did with Allen after his breakout third season. However, what if Jones is just good enough to warrant another look in 2024, but not good enough to silence his critics? What if he's only slightly better than what we saw in 2021 when he was Pro Football Focus' 11th-ranked quarterback?
The Patriots then would have one of three choices to make:
1. Show confidence in Jones and exercise the fifth-year option anyway
This would be quite a gamble. On one hand, Jones could show another slight improvement in 2024, with the Patriots then getting him at a bargain rate in 2025. But if he regresses and proves he's not the answer at quarterback, New England would be stuck paying him over $23 million in 2025, regardless of whether it trades or releases him. It's a difficult call.
Just look at what the New York Giants did a year ago. They understandably opted against picking up the fifth-year option on Daniel Jones, who to that point looked like a bust but was worth another look with a new head coach in charge. Jones, who'll be a free agent next month, then went out and enjoyed a career season in 2022. New York now is backed into a corner and must decide whether to place the franchise tag on Jones (worth $32.4 million) or give a new contract to a player who probably isn't worth a huge payday but will be looking for one and could find it on the open market. Unless the Giants can acquire someone like Lamar Jackson or Aaron Rodgers this offseason, they'll need to pay Jones. New York probably wishes it just picked up the option a year ago, but how could it have known that Jones would play as well as he did this season?
You don't need to tell the Patriots about how things can go sideways with a fifth-year option. They picked up Isaiah Wynn's two years ago, and look how that turned out.
2. Decline the option, try to sign Jones to a new contract that accurately reflects his value
It's worth a shot, but why would Jones sign it? He knows the promise he showed in 2021 and clearly believes he was put in a bad position this season. If he gets back on track and plays well -- but not great -- in 2023, he rightfully would believe he's on an upward trajectory and would earn even more money in free agency if he breaks out in 2024.
In theory, Jones could recognize the risks of playing poorly in a contract season and just sign a new deal. But few players in his position are willing to do that. NFL quarterbacks have (and need to have) big egos, and Jones is no different. He has a ton of confidence in himself and is highly competitive. Plus, given the way things transpired this season, Jones might not love the idea of doing the Patriots any favors.
Again, it doesn't hurt to try. But this feels like an unlikely outcome.
3. Allow Jones to play in a contract year in 2024
This would make for quite a storyline. The Patriots could assure Jones that if he balls out in 2024, he'll get the contract he wants. But again, who knows where Jones' head will be by then?
What if he's been keeping receipts for every time Belichick refuses to back him during press conferences? What if Jones never gets over being booed off his own field during the height of "Zappe Fever?" What if he's sick and tired of being a daily punching bag on Boston sports talk radio? Public endorsements from Robert Kraft only go so far.
New England still would have some control. It could just assign Jones either the franchise tag (projected at $41.7 million) or the transition tag ($36.4 million). But it's hard to envision a scenario in which Jones two years from now deserves to be one of the highest-paid quarterbacks on the planet. The situation could wind up mirroring what the Giants are going through with Daniel Jones, with the Patriots having no choice but to overpay a good-but-not-elite quarterback.
Ultimately, none of this will matter if Jones makes the decision easy for the Patriots. In a perfect world, Jones establishes himself as a franchise quarterback this season, and the embarrassment of 2022 is a distant memory.
But there also is a clear path toward a total mess a year from now. Such is life in a post-Tom Brady world.
