It was difficult to predict how the Boston Red Sox’s 2023 season would unfold, with so much roster turnover and the last two years falling on opposite ends of the spectrum.
After one week, it’s still difficult to predict.
The Red Sox took two of three from the Baltimore Orioles in their opening series, thanks to a historic start offensively, but then suffered a sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that lost 100 games each of the last two seasons. If not for a workmanlike win Thursday against the Detroit Tigers, the conversation might center around angst. Instead, with Boston sitting at 3-4, there have been enough positives and enough fight shown to suggest the Red Sox could be scrappy, even if not legitimate World Series contenders. Then again, who knows.
It’ll likely come down to pitching and whether Boston’s impending reinforcements — Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and James Paxton — will be enough to spark a staff that so far has been bad. The Red Sox rank 26th in team ERA (5.57), 27th in WHIP (1.56) and 28th in FIP (5.77) through seven games. Boston pitchers are averaging 4.43 walks per nine innings, the fourth-worst mark in Major League Baseball.
Of course, we’re dealing with an extremely small sample size, which reinforces the original point: We don’t know what to make of these Red Sox quite yet. So, let’s watch and find out.
Red Sox odds (4/7)
To win World Series: +8000
To win American League: +3200
To win AL East: +2500
To make playoffs: +400
It’s been a rollercoaster start to the season for the Red Sox, which is reflected in the betting market, where Boston’s futures odds have dipped somewhat since Opening Day. On March 29, the Red Sox were +6000 to win the World Series, +3000 to win the American League, +1800 to win the AL East and +310 to make the playoffs.
Do you believe Boston can find some consistency over the long haul? If so, these odds present an opportunity to buy low. Although, keep in mind the Red Sox’s upcoming opponents — the Tampa Bay Rays (6-0), Los Angeles Angels (4-2), Minnesota Twins (4-2) and Milwaukee Brewers (5-1) — when projecting out, to make sure you’re striking at the best possible time and extracting the most value from your wager(s).
*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Probable pitchers
— Saturday, April 8 (4:10 p.m. ET at Tigers): Tanner Houck, RHP (1-0, 5.40 ERA) vs. Joey Wentz, LHP (0-1, 5.06 ERA)
— Sunday, April 9 (1:10 p.m. ET at Tigers): Kutter Crawford, RHP (0-1, 15.75 ERA) vs. Matthew Boyd, LHP (0-0, 4.15 ERA)
Storylines to watch
1. What’s next for Tanner Houck?
Houck left his horrible spring training in the rearview mirror Sunday when he tossed five innings and earned the win in Boston’s 9-5 victory over the Baltimore. It wasn’t a dominant performance, with Houck allowing three runs over five innings, but it’s a good starting point as the right-hander looks to find a rhythm. It’ll be interesting to see how Houck’s role evolves throughout the season. He’ll presumably rejoin the bullpen when the rotation is fully stocked, but even then, his usage could change based on performance, health and overall team need. Houck’s versatility is an asset, so long as he’s providing quality innings. And he looked nasty at times in his first start of 2023.
2. Is Rafael Devers about to really go off?
Devers went 0-for-8 in the Red Sox’s final two games against the Pirates after a sizzling start to the season. The sign of an impending cold streak? Eh, not so fast. Boston’s franchise third baseman launched a home run and a wall-ball double in Thursday’s series opener at Comerica Park, with exit velocities of 107.9 mph and 108.3 mph, respectively. Devers is barreling up the baseball — evident by his 97th-percentile exit velo and his 96th-percentile hard-hit rate — and we’ll see if that trend continues despite the Tigers trotting out a pair of lefties this weekend.
3. Can Adam Duvall stay hot?
Duvall leads the team in average (.458), home runs (three), RBIs (12) and OPS (1.577). No player has ever totaled more RBIs in his first six games as a member of the Red Sox. And he’s coming through in big spots, with a walk-off homer Saturday against the Orioles and a go-ahead blast Thursday against the Tigers. Such production probably isn’t sustainable, but signing Duvall over the offseason could turn out to be a savvy move by the Red Sox.
