This Stat Shows How Huge Patriots-Giants Is For NFL Draft Positioning

The Patriots and Giants have squared off in two Super Bowls, playing for the NFL’s ultimate prize.

The stakes for their latest matchup couldn’t be more different.

When New England and New York meet this Sunday at MetLife Stadium, the more valuable prize will go to the team that loses.

The Patriots sit at 2-8, owning the worst record in the AFC and third-worst in the NFL. If the season ended Wednesday, they would receive the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Giants’ record is only slightly better at 3-8. They’re in line to land the fifth overall pick.

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Either franchise would greatly benefit from a top-five draft pick, as both rosters sorely lack talent. But a top-two selection likely would be required to land one of this year’s elite quarterback prospects, as USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye are expected to be the first two players off the board.

The loser of Sunday’s game will take a large step toward that range. If the Patriots fall to the Giants, their odds of landing a top-two pick would leap to 38%, according to ESPN Analytics, while a win would drop them to 9%. The Giants’ odds are similar: 47% with a loss, 11% with a win.

Chance to earn a top-2 pick in the draft depending on Week 12 result, per ESPN Analytics

Patriots w/ win: 9%
Patriots w/ loss: 38%

Giants w/ win: 11%
Giants w/ loss: 47%

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) November 21, 2023

The Patriots enter Week 12 with a 5.2% chance of scoring the No. 1 overall pick, per ESPN Analytics’ model, fourth-highest behind the Giants (13.1%), Arizona Cardinals (18.9%) and Chicago Bears (56.4%), who own both their own selection and the last-place Carolina Panthers’.

Though the Giants have a half-game edge in the standings, the Patriots were pegged as three-point road favorites as of Wednesday morning despite not announcing who will start at quarterback this week. This is a game New England, which has five one-score losses on its résumé, should win.

But New York did just knock off a Washington Commanders team that beat the Patriots two weeks earlier, scoring 31 points in the process with third-string rookie Tommy DeVito behind center. The Patriots have shown this season they are capable of losing to any opponent, regardless of talent level.

Another loss Sunday would — in a bizarre twist that underscores just how bad things have gotten for Bill Belichick’s club — be more beneficial than a victory.