One of the most anticipated weeks in NFL history is upon us.
Tom Brady returns to Gillette Stadium on Sunday night as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the first time he’ll take the field in Foxboro as the enemy. Of course, given all he did for the Patriots, he’ll almost certainly get a hero’s welcome.
The Patriots-Bucs showdown has never-ending storylines, with Brady’s grudge match with Bill Belichick going front and center. It’s like something out of a movie after two decades of dominance.
While that undoubtedly is the biggest draw in Week 4, the rest of the slate actually is pretty good, too. Nothing comes close to matching the hoopla of Sunday night, but there are a handful of potential playoff previews or early-season measuring stick games across the league.
As always, NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle are here to make against-the-spread picks for all 16 games. Be sure to also check out “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast where Mike and Ricky go through their picks for the week’s biggest games.
Here’s how they fared with their picks last week.
Here are their Week 4 picks, with betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
THURSDAY, SEPT. 30
Jacksonville Jaguars at (-7.5) Cincinnati Bengals, 8:20 p.m. ET
Mike: Jaguars. The Bengals certainly have looked decent at times this season, but neither of these teams is very good, so laying more than a touchdown feels like a big ask no matter how putrid the Jags have been.
Ricky: Bengals. Maybe this is Trevor Lawrence’s first big performance in the NFL? Maybe the Bengals get caught looking ahead to next week’s home game against the Packers? Maybe we’re staring at a backdoor cover? All of those things are on the table, but Jacksonville simply is not good at anything while being very, very bad at a lot of things.
SUNDAY, OCT. 3
(-2) Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. Have we seen enough out of Washington yet to declare the Football Team bad? The strange thing is how bad the defense has been, especially on third down, where it’s been wretched. Atlanta, also not great, is at least building some momentum with a win last week behind a solid Matt Ryan showing.
Ricky: Washington. The Week 3 optics certainly favor Atlanta, with Washington getting pummeled by Buffalo. But there’s still something off about the Falcons’ offense, with Matty Ice taking very few shots downfield despite decent weapons. This is a good week for WFT’s defense to regain its old form.
Houston Texans at (-16) Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans. Honestly, I’m just afraid to lay 16 points. That said, Houston has a big rest advantage after a Thursday night game in Week 3, while Buffalo could get caught looking ahead to Kansas City in Week 5. Rain is in the forecast, too, so maybe the Bills are just gonna be concerned with getting the win, staying healthy and being done with it.
Ricky: Texans. Man, that’s a lot of points for an NFL game. And while Buffalo’s defense could make life miserable for rookie QB Davis Mills, Houston’s conservative nature actually might help with regards to keeping it within the number. So, too, could a Josh Allen turnover.
Detroit Lions at (-3) Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears. Both of these teams are quite bad, and the Lions’ defense probably isn’t gonna put Justin Fields or whoever the Bears start at QB in the blender like Cleveland did last week. If anything, this might be a big game for the Chicago defense.
Ricky: Bears. The public perception of the Bears can’t get any worse after last week’s offensive showing, so there’s some value here in laying a short number at home against a bad Lions team.
Carolina Panthers at (-4) Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. The Christian McCaffrey injury obviously changes a lot for the Carolina offense, and it could further expose the issues the Panthers have on the offensive line. Without that safety valve, the pressure Sam Darnold has faced all season could finally be a big problem this week.
Ricky: Panthers. Feels like a low number with the Panthers losing McCaffrey and the Cowboys smoking the Eagles in Week 3. But keep in mind the rest element: Carolina played last Thursday night, whereas Dallas played four days later on Monday night. Can’t find a bigger discrepancy than that.
Indianapolis Colts at (-2) Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins. Carson Wentz is hobbled by both of his ankles, and the Colts have struggled to protect him in each game. Now, it looks like stud O-lineman Quenton Nelson will miss this one, and Miami has Pro Football Focus’s 10th-ranked pass rush. Seems like a problem for the Colts.
Ricky: Colts. Raise your hand if you’re excited for the Jacoby Brissett revenge game. *Crickets* Anyway, we’re reaching must-win territory for the Colts.
(-2) Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns. The Vikings’ defense still feels like it’s a problem. Minnesota is allowing almost five yards per rush, missing a ton of tackles and not doing much to generate turnovers. Their greatest strength is the pass rush, but Cleveland ranks No. 1 in pass-block win rate.
Ricky: Vikings. Minnesota has some offensive firepower, giving the Vikings serious upset potential at home against a Browns team whose defense ranks 23rd in dropback EPA. Keep in mind, too: Minnesota, despite being 1-2 SU, had both Cincinnati and Arizona against the ropes before righting the ship and beating Seattle in Week 3.
New York Giants at (-8) New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Mike: Saints. The Giants are dealing with a rash of injuries, losing wideouts Sterling Shepherd and Darius Slayton in addition to linebacker Blake Martinez tearing his ACL. Meanwhile, the Saints have looked impressive in two of three weeks and now get their first true home game of the year.
Ricky: Giants. Not expecting many points in this game, with the over/under sitting at 42. That’ll make it challenging to cover the number, and the Jekyll-and-Hyde tendencies of Jameis Winston always will create a certain level of uneasiness, even against inferior competition.
(-8) Tennessee Titans at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets. It hurts to pick the Jets once again, but Tennessee’s defense is still a problem, allowing more than 6 yards per play. Injuries on the offense are a concern, too. Can Zach Wilson just get us one or two big plays here?
Ricky: Titans. Going to have a really hard time backing the Jets until I know they can score a touchdown — something they haven’t done since garbage time in Week 1.
(-7) Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.
Mike: Eagles. The Eagles seemingly need to keep it close in order to expose KC’s run defense. They fell behind last week in Dallas and only ended up rushing it 12 times, nine of them coming from Jalen Hurts. But as PFF points out, Philly has done a nice job limiting big passing plays this season, so it feels like there’s a chance for them here.
Ricky: Chiefs. Kansas City (1-12-1 ATS in its last 14 games) needs to cover a spread at some point, right? Can’t imagine the Chiefs turn the ball over four times again — like they did last week against the Chargers — and it’ll be tough for the Eagles to throw their way back into the game if they fall behind early.
Arizona Cardinals at (-4) Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals. Arizona actually might pose a tougher threat than the Bucs did last week. The Arizona pass rush should be able to get Matt Stafford out of an insane rhythm, while the offense should present some problems. The Cardinals have one of the deepest receiving groups in the league, and Kyler Murray has a near-perfect passer rating against the blitz, while the Rams have one of the NFL’s most blitz-heavy defenses.
Ricky: Rams. Arizona’s offense has been met with little resistance to this point, facing Tennessee, Minnesota and Jacksonville — three teams among the bottom eight in opponent yards per play. That’ll change this week against Los Angeles’ defense, which will force Murray (four interceptions in three games) into a few ill-advised throws. The Cardinals also haven’t had an answer for the Rams’ offense under Sean McVay, and that was before LA added a legitimate quarterback.
Seattle Seahawks at (-3) San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks. I guess I’m gonna just keep chasing the Seahawks of old until I convince myself they’re not any good. This has more to do with Jimmy Garoppolo, though, who inspires very little confidence at this point.
Ricky: Seahawks. The 49ers’ secondary could be a problem, which isn’t great when you’re trying to bounce back from a loss against the Packers by staving off Russell Wilson and a Seahawks offense that leads the NFL with 7.4 yards per play through three weeks.
Baltimore Ravens at (-1) Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Ravens. Last week was a natural letdown spot for Baltimore, and it showed. This week, I think John Harbaugh will have his team ready to go against a Denver team that has not played anything resembling a good football team yet. And at some point, the Broncos’ injuries — on both sides of the ball — have to take a toll.
Ricky: Ravens. Consider the Broncos’ opponents to this point: the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. Those three teams — quarterbacked by Daniel Jones and two rookies — are 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS. Denver has benefitted from good fortune — opposing QBs have the NFL’s highest off-target pass percentage and opposing receivers have the fourth-highest drop rate, per ESPN — so some natural regression needs to be considered before laying points against the Ravens, who are undervalued based on how they looked against the Lions but well positioned to bounce back with several key defensive players returning from the COVID-19 list.
Pittsburgh Steelers at (-6.5) Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Packers. T.J. Watt still is limited after missing last week’s game, and Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with a pec injury that also limited him. That’s just the tip of the Pittsburgh injury iceberg. Even when healthy, the Steelers have struggled to protect Big Ben (27th in pass-block win rate), and now they get a confident Packers defense that dominated (10 QB hits) a stellar San Francisco O-line last week.
Ricky: Packers. “At least they have an elite defense and excellent wide receivers.” Perhaps it’s time to start rethinking that sentiment about the Steelers now that injuries are affecting their two biggest strengths and therefore turning Pittsburgh into nothing more than a mediocre football team.
(-7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Patriots. Seems crazy, right? However, there’s a reason Tampa Bay decided to sign Richard Sherman off the street. The Bucs’ secondary isn’t very good, and the pass rush — despite its star power — has been nonexistent. New England throws the kitchen sink on offense and finds a way to keep this just close enough to cover.
Ricky: Bucs. Just not sure the Patriots can move the sticks. Mac Jones went 3-for-19 with a touchdown and two interceptions on throws of at least 15 yards downfield against the Saints, per ESPN Stats & Info, and the rookie might not fare much better this week while trying to overcome a leaky offensive line and the loss of security blanket James White against a Bucs defense capable of stopping the run and swarming pass-catchers at the second level thanks to its ultra-talented linebacker corps.
MONDAY, OCT. 4
Las Vegas Raiders at (-3.5) Los Angeles Chargers, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Chargers. The collective “they” want me to overthink this one, but I’m not taking the bait. Las Vegas could be 10-0, and I still wouldn’t believe they were very good. In terms of balance, the Chargers are the best team they’ve faced this year, and Justin Herbert is likely to make it show.
Ricky: Raiders. Las Vegas’ defense has been one of the most surprising developments across the NFL, as the unit has far exceeded expectations thanks largely to the pressure it’s generating up front. While I’m much higher on the Chargers in the long run and, like Mike, believe the Raiders will come down to earth at some point, this feels like a field-goal game. Take the points at -3.5 or higher.
