If you needed a reminder, you got it Monday night in Buffalo: Football weather is here.
In a league that has seen its playing conditions become increasingly homogenized (by design), “Monday Night Football” in Week 13 was a spectacle. The New England Patriots jumped in their time machine and schemed up a game plan from the days of leather helmets to outlast the Bills and solidify their spot atop the AFC.
Again, it was a not-so-subtle reminder that absent a roof over a stadium, outside factors can affect the way a game is played and therefore should be considered when handicapping as the NFL races down the stretch toward the playoffs.
NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle have run the models, checked the forecasts and flipped the coins to make their Week 14 against-the-spread picks for every game on the slate.
But first, here’s how they fared last week.
Now, here are their Week 14 ATS picks, with lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
THURSDAY, DEC. 8
Pittsburgh Steelers at (-3) Minnesota Vikings, 8:20 p.m. ET
Mike: Steelers. Admittedly liked this a lot more before the Dalvin Cook news, but the loss of Adam Thielen is a big one for Minnesota. More importantly, the Vikings look just about dead, while the Steelers have life after a dramatic divisional win.
Ricky: Steelers. Pittsburgh just won’t go away quietly — the antithesis of Minnesota, which keeps coughing up any momentum while failing to reach its potential. The Vikings’ defense ranks dead-last in rush EPA, so the Steelers should lean on Najee Harris and the ground game to win ugly on the road.
SUNDAY, DEC. 12
(-4.5) Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. Washington’s defense has had issues defending the pass, and it’s needed to blitz a lot to generate pressure. Dak Prescott has a passer rating over 105 against the blitz, and if WFT brings the extra man, it’s going to leave a questionable secondary on islands to try and stop a very deep receiving corps.
Ricky: Cowboys. Dallas is the more rested team, having played back-to-back Thursday games, and is getting healthier on both sides of the ball. Washington has done an excellent job of controlling the clock during its four-game winning streak, but all four opponents had more yards per play, suggesting the defense remains vulnerable despite its apparent turnaround. Expect the Cowboys to sustain drives and knock WFT down a peg.
Las Vegas Raiders at (-9.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Mike: Raiders. Hate this pick so much, as I’m officially in my own head about the Chiefs. That said, KC is in a tricky spot, playing the second of three straight divisional games with a huge Thursday night matchup against the Chargers looming. Vegas somehow finds a way to hang around.
Ricky: Raiders. The Chiefs are establishing a new identity before our eyes, continuing to win games thanks to their defense as their high-powered offense stalls. That actually might prove beneficial come playoff time, with KC built to win in a variety of ways, but it also makes for some uneasy wagering. Going to take the points, thinking maybe Vegas sneaks in the back door late.
Baltimore Ravens at (-3) Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns. Almost strictly a scheduling lean, as these two teams met two weeks ago and played an ugly, physical game. Cleveland then went and had its bye — much-needed given Baker Mayfield’s physical condition — while Baltimore had to go play a brutal game in Pittsburgh. This is a spot in which the Browns should try (and likely succeed) to punish a banged-up Baltimore bunch.
Ricky: Browns. Something is just off about the Ravens, who haven’t looked impressive, even in their victories. The same can be said for the Browns, obviously, but as Mike highlighted, it’s going to be awfully difficult for the Ravens to pull a rabbit out of their hat this week in Cleveland. The Browns also need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Jacksonville Jaguars at (-8.5) Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans. Ryan Tannehill has had some ball security issues this season, but Jacksonville has forced just six turnovers, which is so low it feels like some sort of accounting error. The line actually has moved toward Jacksonville, but I’m gonna just ignore that and expect the Titans, who are good, to steamroll the Jaguars, who are bad.
Ricky: Jaguars. Is there ever a good reason to take Jacksonville? This is more about what we’ve seen from the Titans’ offense, which understandably has sputtered without Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown.
(-7.5) Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans. Way back in May, the Westgate made Seattle a 7-point favorite in this game, and despite a pretty tough season, the Seahawks actually are laying more here. It’s possible Houston is completely dead, but I think the Texans’ pass rush comes alive for at least one more game and is in the backfield enough to disrupt Russell Wilson and keep it manageable.
Ricky: Texans. That was a nice, uplifting home win for the Seahawks last week against the 49ers, a team they’ve now beaten twice this season. Seattle’s other two victories: Week 1 against the Colts, who still were finding their footing with Carson Wentz under center, and Week 8 against the Jaguars, who stink. Just not ready to lay more than a touchdown on the road here, even against an opponent as weak as the Texans. The Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.
(-5.5) New Orleans Saints at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets. Taysom Hill wasn’t an effective thrower before he had a splint on his finger and already has admitted it’s a “work in progress” to figure out how to effectively do so. Even with Alvin Kamara back, I’m not expecting much from the New Orleans offense. Also, the Jets’ offense actually has been slightly above league average since Zach Wilson’s return.
Ricky: Saints. Kamara’s return might coincide with the returns of left tackle Terron Armstead and defensive end Marcus Davenport, giving New Orleans a major boost along the line of scrimmage on both sides. The Jets’ defense also has been brutal against the run (30th in rush DVOA), so Hill’s deficiencies as a passer shouldn’t matter all that much.
Atlanta Falcons at (-2.5) Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Panthers. Carolina loves to blitz — only three teams have done it more — and no one has thrown more interceptions against the blitz than Matt Ryan. Carolina should build its defensive game plan around that and stopping Kyle Pitts, and it should keep the Falcons in check enough for the Panthers’ own low-powered offense to do enough to cover the number.
Ricky: Falcons. The Panthers’ offense has looked markedly worse this season without Christian McCaffrey. Now, they’re starting Cam Newton, who was awful before Carolina’s bye, with a new offensive coordinator. Too much unpredictability (and too low a floor) to be laying points.
New York Giants at (-10) Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Giants. Despite an impressive win last week, the Chargers generally can’t be trusted — but especially not as 10-point favorites. Assuming Saquon Barkley’s ankle injury isn’t a huge issue, he should have a nice “Oh, yeah, he’s pretty good” game against LA’s shaky run defense.
Ricky: Chargers. Jake Fromm might start at quarterback for the Giants. He’s never thrown an NFL pass, so who the heck knows what you’re getting from him?
Detroit Lions at (-8.5) Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Broncos. I was ready to take Detroit because “Why would I want to lay more than a touchdown with the Broncos?” But I dug a little deeper and realized when the Broncos win, they win by an average of 14 points. I think they’re going to win, so that points me toward them covering, too.
Ricky: Broncos. Fun win for the Lions last week. Now back to getting punched in the mouth, this time on the road in Denver against a Broncos team that’s 19-4 SU in its last 23 games against opponents with losing records.
Buffalo Bills at (-3.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Bills. The good news for Buffalo is there won’t be 50 mph wind gusts this week in Tampa. The Bills are in a good bounce-back spot against a Tampa Bay defense that is in the bottom half of the league when adjusted for garbage time. Josh Allen will look like an MVP again as Buffalo keeps it close in a shootout.
Ricky: Bills. Just seems like a week where the Bills are on high alert, while the Bucs are more apt to let their guard down with a Sunday night showdown against the Saints looming in Week 15. Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games after a SU loss. Opportunities will be there for Allen to sling it.
(-1) San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: 49ers. Cincinnati’s injuries are mounting, and it’ll be without linebacker Logan Wilson this week, really hurting its ability to defend the middle of the field. And, well, look at where 49ers tight end George Kittle was making hay in a monster game last week. It’s obviously not that simple, but this seems like a good matchup exploitation opportunity for Kyle Shanahan.
Ricky: 49ers. Bengals QB Joe Burrow has had turnover problems this season, throwing an NFL-high 14 interceptions, and now is dealing with a jacked-up pinky finger. Not great.
Chicago Bears at (-12.5) Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Bears. It’s entirely possible the Packers win 31-10 here, but I actually think there will be some rust and ineffectiveness coming off the bye. Green Bay feels like a team that knows what’s important over the next two or three months, and covering the number against the Bears is an unlikely part of that equation.
Ricky: Packers. The Bears (and their lame-duck coach) basically have gotten smoked any time they’ve played a good team this season. And the Packers are a good team — that’s also coming off a bye, at home, on Sunday night, against an inconsistent rookie quarterback who’s returning from injury.
MONDAY, DEC. 13
Los Angeles Rams at (-2) Arizona Cardinals, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals. The LA offense just hasn’t looked right without Robert Woods, going from the second-ranked passing attack by EPA with him to No. 18 since he went down. The Rams’ third-down offense from 11th to 23rd. Combine that with Matthew Stafford’s injuries and Sean McVay’s increasingly predictable late-season ineffectiveness, and it might be a quiet night for the Rams.
Ricky: Cardinals. Is everyone snoozing on Arizona? It’s starting to feel that way because all the Cardinals have done this season is win — and cover, going 9-3 ATS, the second-best mark in the NFL. The Rams beat up on the Jaguars in Week 13, but that’s been their M.O.: Bully weak opponents who can’t match their star power. The Cardinals have both the high-end talent and (perhaps more importantly in the context of this matchup) the depth to fend off their flashy divisional adversary.
