NBA Finals Odds: Did Stephen Curry’s Poor Game 5 Open Door For New MVP?
Curry remains the heavy favorite with the Warriors leading the Celtics 3-2
The Golden State Warriors pulled to within one win of another title Monday when they defeated the Boston Celtics in Game 5 at Chase Center, and Stephen Curry remains the heavy favorite to earn NBA Finals MVP honors with Game 6 looming at TD Garden.
But how the Warriors secured their latest victory — with Golden State’s best player struggling — at least created some debate as to whether Curry is an MVP lock or if someone else might sneak in the back door for additional hardware.
Curry has the shortest NBA Finals MVP odds at -320, per DraftKings Sportsbook, despite scoring just 16 points on 7-for-22 shooting (0-for-9 from 3-point range) in Game 5.
He’s followed by Jayson Tatum (+350), the most logical MVP candidate should the Celtics win back-to-back games to steal the championship from the Warriors’ grasp.
Tatum has stumbled at times in the NBA Finals, but there isn’t another clear-cut Celtics frontrunner. And Boston might need Tatum to go off in Games 6 and 7, a development that obviously would help his chances of winning MVP.
As such, there is some value on picking Tatum at +350 — a bet that has the potential to be more profitable than picking the Celtics to win the series at +290.
If you’re feeling really froggy, though, you could opt for Jaylen Brown at +1500. Tatum’s woes, coupled with the possibility of Brown being the one to take over for Boston in Games 6 and 7, make the latter a defendable long-shot wager at this stage of the series.
But let’s focus for a second on one of Curry’s teammates, Andrew Wiggins. Because that’s the conversation that really started to percolate in the wake of Curry’s Game 5 performance, which happened to coincide with an exceptional effort from Wiggins.
Wiggins scored 26 points, grabbed 13 rebounds and played outstanding defense as the Warriors won 104-94 to take a 3-2 series lead. His excellence — and aggressiveness — on both ends of the floor might’ve been the single-biggest reason Golden State fended off Boston’s Game 5 rally.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Wiggins at +1400 to win MVP ahead of Game 6. Is he a realistic candidate?
Probably not, as Curry has been amazing with the exception of Game 5. And even if Wiggins dominates Game 6 (and Game 7, if necessary) and Curry doesn’t, it’d still be a toss-up, a scenario that’d almost certainly fall in the latter’s favor.
Here are their numbers through five games for additional context:
Curry: 37.0 MPG, 30.6 PPG, 5.6 RBG, 4.6 APG, 46.2 FG%
Wiggins: 38.4 MPG, 18.4 PPG, 9.4 RBG, 1.6 APG, 44.8 FG%
Basically, there’s a reason Curry has such short odds to be named MVP: The Warriors have two chances to win one game, and he’s been Golden State’s best player.
If you’re looking for an alternative wager, you’re better off shifting your focus to the Celtics and hoping for Boston to mount a series comeback. In that scenario, Tatum is the safest play, with Brown remaining a live long shot and really the only other option worth considering.
