How Much Is Patriots’ Target DeAndre Hopkins Worth To Point Spread?
Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White weighs in
The New England Patriots are still hot and heavy on DeAndre Hopkins.
Hopkins is no longer one of the NFL’s elite receivers, but the 31-year-old free agent would drastically improve New England’s aerial attack. The Pats caught only 19 touchdown passes last season, a number they’ll definitely aim to improve under “born again” offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien.
Legendary Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White has made power ratings and spreads for major professional and collegiate sports for four decades. White computes numbers on every team and he takes it to another level by assigning a point value to every player above his replacement, too.
“Hopkins isn’t even worth a full point anymore,” White told NESN. “I’ve got him 0.9 points better than the average receiver. He hasn’t scored double-digit touchdowns in five years and durability is a concern. He’ll help the Patriots, but he’s no longer a game changer.”
Hopkins is favored to land with the Patriots at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Top WRs to betting line via Kenny White:
2.4 – Tyreek Hill (Dolphins)
2.3 – Cooper Kupp (Rams)
2.1 – Davante Adams (Raiders)
2.1 – Justin Jefferson (Vikings)
2.0 – A.J. Brown (Eagles)
Wide receivers don’t move the betting line the way a quarterback does as the top-tier playmakers are worth two points or higher. White says Miami Dolphins star Tyreek Hill is worth almost 2.5 points to the spread, meaning if Miami was a 5.5-point favorite with a healthy Hill, it would be only be favored by 3 without him.
While 2.5 points might not sound like a whole lot, a near-full possession is everything when it comes to betting football. And sometimes a star player’s worth can feel low when you consider how tough Jaylen Waddle’s life is without Hill on the field.
Bottom line, it’s easy to understand why New England is courting Hopkins and fellow free-agent Dalvin Cook on the open market. Last year’s offense resembled a margarita without tequila and either player would bring a much-needed kick.
Just temper your expectations when it comes to Hopkins’ production.
