Patriots-Broncos Betting Preview: Trends, Prop, Pick For Week 16

What is meant to be the most festive time of year might not be for NFL fans when they get subjected to a primetime Patriots-Broncos Christmas Eve matchup.

New England continues to trudge along toward the end of the season when the real drama between Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick might happen. Denver heads into Sunday still pretending it has a shot at the playoffs, so that’s something fans will hear the ho-hum NFL Network broadcast crew talk about. There are at least two bright sides: This is the last time the Patriots will be in primetime, and there’s a chance it might snow at Empower Field at Mile High.

The Patriots fell right back down to Earth last week when the Kansas City Chiefs soundly defeated them at Gillette Stadium in front of Taylor Swift. Belichick is facing his first 12-loss season in the final weeks of the season, which seems like a likelihood with two of their last three opponents still with something to play for.

That’s tough for bettors and those in the fantasy playoffs, but New England at least showed during the final stretch of the season that it will play hard no matter the circumstances. And yes, there actually are Patriots players who will be contemplated in the fantasy playoffs: Ezekiel Elliott and Demario Douglas.

Denver has been a confusing team all season. Sean Payton was brought on to right the Russell Wilson ship, and the veteran quarterback has been fine but not great. Payton’s snipe at Nathaniel Hackett hasn’t looked great even though the Jets offensive coordinator hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire for New York.

The Broncos largely are irrelevant in the public eye. Announcers still bring up the fact the defense gave up 70 points to the Miami Dolphins despite that happening all the way back in Week 3 and the defense making improvements on the field and the sideline. But you’re most definitely going to hear how the Patriots struggle to score points against a defense that gave up 70 points.

Kurt Warner also will definitely find a way to talk about Bailey Zappe to get the Zappe truthers going, and while the second-year quarterback hasn’t been the disaster Mac Jones was, he still isn’t great. And QBs like Jake Browning showed how much better things could have been for the Patriots if they actually cared about the quarterback position post-Tom Brady.

Here’s all you need to know about Sunday’s Patriots-Broncos matchup from a betting perspective. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and NESN Bets consensus data.

New England Patriots at (-7) Denver Broncos
Total: 36.5
Where: Empower Field at Mile High; Denver

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BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
Despite the highlights of Wilson’s game-losing interception against the Patriots in the Super Bowl, the veteran is 3-1 ATS against Belichick, according to Action Network. Payton is 2-2 ATS in his career against the Patriots head coach. If you put money on New England this season, you’ve had a bad betting season. The Patriots are 3-10-1 ATS this season, the worst in the NFL, and their team total under is 11-3. Belichick is 6-11 ATS in night games since Brady left New England. NFL underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 183-129-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 and 97-75?6 ATS (56%) in the past two seasons.

PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Bailey Zappe under 185.5 passing yards (-114) — We hit on this prop last week, so we’re going back to the well again. After their Week 10 bye, the Broncos defense is fifth in dropback EPA and ninth in dropback success rate. Pat Surtain II should shut down New England’s receivers, and even though Zappe said this week he knows he must be better in the second half of games, we’re not buying into that.

BRONCOS PROP TO CONSIDER
Courtland Sutton over 53.5 receiving yards (-114) — You can also throw in anytime touchdown for Sutton at +145 here as well since at least a third of his fantasy production in Yahoo leagues has come through touchdowns. Jerry Jeudy became a shell of what he was projected to be this season, and Sutton has been Wilson’s top target. The Patriots are the top rush defense unit in the league, but they are vulnerable in the air. Fans should expect some YOLO balls heading toward Sutton’s way, and he should be able to win those against New England’s corners.

PICK: Over 36.5
The Broncos don’t feel like they should be touchdown favorites over the Patriots, but it also never feels right to bet on New England. This could be like the “Thursday Night Football” matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers from Week 14 where the game ends up being more high-scoring than anticipated, baffling the announcers. The Patriots at least showed some competency against the Chiefs defense, so another hot first half could be in store for Zappe, which could be enough to push the total toward the over.