NFL Wild Card Picks: Major Upset Potential In Opening Round Of Playoffs
Related: Are the Lions actually underrated at this point?
The road to Super Bowl LVIII is nearing its end, as the NFL playoffs begin Saturday with the wild-card round.
The NFL’s playoff expansion has been a good news/bad news sort of thing for the opening round of the postseason. On one hand, the expanded field gives us more playoff games over more days. That’s always cool. On the other, though, you get some teams into the field that maybe don’t deserve to be there, and they simply get trounced. That’s always kind of a bummer.
This year’s installment at least offers plenty of storylines. On Saturday, you get C.J. Stroud’s playoff debut against red-hot Joe Flacco (what year is it?). Then you get the Chiefs and Dolphins playing in an icebox. On Sunday, Bills-Steelers will look cool, the Cowboys and Packers are timeless, and Matthew Stafford heads to Detroit for the first time with the Rams as the Lions host a freaking playoff game.
All of that makes up for the fact that Monday night’s Eagles-Bucs game is, well, slightly unappetizing and a chance for you to maybe catch up on some sleep.
NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle dived into it all this week on “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast. They not only covered all of the important storylines and narratives. They also gave multiple picks for each game on the slate.
Before getting into their official wild-card round against-the-spread picks, listen to “The Spread” below.
And here’s how the guys fared last week.
Without further ado, let’s dive into the ATS picks.
SATURDAY, JAN. 13
(-2) Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, 4:30 p.m. ET
Mike: Texans.
Ricky: Texans.
The Joe Flacco magic has to run out at some point, right? Rookie quarterbacks making their first career playoff start don’t typically fare well, but C.J. Stroud’s Texans have a decent matchup here. The Browns defense is one of the best in the NFL by all metrics, but they tend to fare much better at home than on the road. Cleveland’s 4-1 record with Flacco at the helm isn’t overly impressive when you look at the teams they have played (including Houston without Stroud). Cleveland might have disrupted its own momentum by resting in Week 18, while the Texans are riding high following a do-or-die road game in Indy last week, too. –MC
Miami Dolphins at (-4.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 8 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins.
Ricky: Chiefs.
I really want to take the Dolphins. Everyone seems to be on the Chiefs, despite Kansas City’s own struggles, and Mike McDaniel’s offensive ingenuity might spark enough splash plays to keep Miami competitive. But the Dolphins’ injuries — which affect every level of the defense — are too much to overlook. After all, the ‘Fins surrendered 56 points to the Ravens in Week 17 and were thoroughly outplayed by the Bills in Week 18. –RD
No Matchup Found
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SUNDAY, JAN. 14
Pittsburgh Steelers at (-10) Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Mike: Steelers.
Ricky: Bills.
Major admission here: This is more of a hunch than anything else. The Bills haven’t been impressive outside of maybe a couple of games down the stretch. Maybe they figure it out this weekend, but their biggest issue has just been getting in their own way. It’s nothing new, either. In their last 10 games as double-digit favorites — including the playoffs — they are 0-10 against the spread. –MC
No Matchup Found
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Green Bay Packers at (-7) Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys.
Ricky: Cowboys.
If you listen to “The Spread,” as you should (obviously), you know that Mike and I are both very high on Packers quarterback Jordan Love. And Green Bay’s offense is well positioned to thrive this week against a Dallas defense that ranks 28th in success rate since Week 11. The Packers take care of the football — only the Colts turned the ball over on a lower percentage of offensive drives since Week 11 — and that theoretically should negate the Cowboys’ ball-hawking tendencies. But the Packers’ defense all too often folds like a lawn chair (see Week 15 vs. Tampa Bay and Week 16 vs. Carolina), which feels like a recipe for disaster against Dak Prescott and company. Expect a shootout, with Dallas pulling away late. –RD
Los Angeles Rams at (-3) Detroit Lions, 8 p.m.
Mike: Rams.
Ricky: Rams.
Ricky and I had an off-air chat about this game this week, and we’re a little afraid that LA is getting too much hype as a dark horse at this point. Public underdogs are scary. That said, they have won seven of their last eight games, with the only loss coming to the Ravens on a walk-off punt in overtime. The Lions, on the other hand, have lost all three of their games against playoff teams since Week 6. Maybe Detroit rallies here behind the disrespect card, but from a purely football standpoint, it looks like the Lions just drew a bad card. –MC
No Matchup Found
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MONDAY, JAN. 15
(-3) Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8 p.m.
Mike: Bucs.
Ricky: Eagles.
Shrug emoji. Trying to handicap this game is a chore, largely because of the Jekyll-and-Hyde nature of each team. Both the Eagles (Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith) and Bucs (Baker Mayfield) are dealing with important injuries, as well. But Philadelphia ultimately has the more talented roster and greater potential to make a deep playoff run. So, fly Eagles fly — I guess? –RD
