What Might Potential Brayan Bello-Red Sox Extension Look Like?

The Texas Rangers have arguably the best offense in baseball, though you might not have guessed it by watching Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello on Wednesday night.

Bello earned his sixth win of the season after tossing seven strong innings, allowing just two runs while striking out three without issuing a walk.

The sterling performance is nothing new for Bello. The 24-year-old pitcher hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start over the last month, going 3-1 in five starts with a 1.82 ERA in 34 2/3 innings pitched. The only loss came June 29 against the Marlins, the definition of a tough-luck defeat in which he carried a no-hitter into the eighth.

Granted, Bello’s 2.97 FIP over that same stretch — a full run higher than his ERA — would suggest some good luck. However, he clearly has figured some things out since April, when he was about to be sent down before injuries on the big league staff kept him in Boston. In fact, since allowing eight runs over his first two starts, Bello has lowered his ERA in all but one of his last 12 starts.

That’s no surprise to anyone who has followed his career to this point. His big league stuff has been touted for years, and after finding his footing as a professional — while overcoming a lost minor league season in 2020 — he produced eye-popping numbers that led to a speedy ascent through the organization.

It’s looking more and more like the Red Sox finally have another homegrown starting pitcher, the most valuable asset in baseball. At the risk of overreacting to a handful of strong big league starts, it is worth wondering whether a contract extension could be in line for Bello.

Surely, the Red Sox want Bello to be part of their next great core. The price to do that, though, is only going to increase assuming Bello continues his development. Boston knows this all too well, as evidenced by Jon Lester’s departure and to a slightly different extent with players like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts.

Bello’s age and inexperience make him an interesting case. The majority of pitchers who were extended before arbitration weren’t extended until they were right up against that wall, as was the case with starters like German Marquez in Colorado or Sandy Alcantara in Miami. Bello won’t hit free agency until after the 2028 season. Technically, there is no rush to get anything done.

But that didn’t stop teams like the Braves or Reds. Those two clubs have started a new trend in throwing around big money for relatively unproven pitchers, albeit pitchers they believe are worth heavy commitment.

Those two pitchers were Spencer Strider in Atlanta and Hunter Greene in Cincinnati. The Braves and Reds, respectively gave those young studs the biggest contracts for starters with between one and two years of major league service, per MLB Trade Rumors.

Here are the very basics of those deals:

Spencer Strider (Atlanta): six years, $75 million
— Signed following 2022 season
— Signed through 2028 (23-28)
— Bought out his final two pre-arb years and all three of his arbitration years
— Includes a club option for 2029 ($22 million with $5 million buyout)

Hunter Greene (Cincinnati): six years, $53 million
— Signed prior to 2023 season
— Signed through 2028 (23-28)
— Bought out his final two pre-arb years and all three of his arbitration years
— Includes club option for 2029 ($21 million with $2 million buyout)
— Potential for $18.2 million in incentives, including $2 million for a Cy Young Award, $1 million for second- or third-place finish in Cy Young, at least $500,000 for a top-10 finish and $200,000 for All-Star selection (per Spotrac)

If the Red Sox view Bello on a similar level, and if Bello is open to an early extension, and if the market stays relatively the same in the next year or so, there’s a pretty clear framework for a deal.

The objectives are pretty simple. The Red Sox guarantee life-changing money to Bello, while he gives up a year or two of free agency to cash in. If the two sides time it right — similar to how the Braves and Reds settled with Strider and Greene — it still allows the player to hit free agency just as he’s turning 30 (or at least in the neighborhood). Carlos Rodon made $162 million over six years as a 30-year-old this winter; Jacob deGrom, an oft-injured 34-year-old, made $185 million. The earning power is still there for 30-something pitchers.

Perhaps the conversation is still a little premature, but the Sox only have $149 million committed to next year’s roster and less than $95 million in 2025. There’s certainly financial flexibility to get something done, and if Bello continues on this track, a new deal could look like an even bigger bargain when it’s all said and done.