Juan Soto To Red Sox? Case For, Against Potential Offseason Trade

The Boston Red Sox have just about everything they need to make multiple splashes this offseason to put the team back in a place to contend.

From starting pitching to a rearranged lineup, the Red Sox will have several priorities this winter.

With three last-place finishes in four years, Boston would also benefit from a new star joining the scene at Fenway Park to bring the Red Sox back into center of the city and the sport.

One player who would do just that is San Diego Padres outfielder Juan Soto. Remarkably, the three-time All-Star and 2019 World Series champion is still just 24 years old and keeps getting better as his career moves along.

San Diego has numerous megadeals on its roster, headlined by Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, so Soto may not fit in a long-term outlook as he approaches free agency.

If the Padres do shop the star, Jim Bowden of The Athletic floated that the Red Sox could be among the suitors.

Like any star, there are several pros and cons in exploring a trade for one of the sport’s best players. It’s time to take a deeper look.

THE CASE FOR
Soto is one of the most gifted offensive players in baseball. His production, lineup presence and ability to consistently get on base make him special.

Soto consistently hits close to 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. Both of his hit tools, for average and for power, are elite around the league. The damage he does when he puts bat to ball makes any lineup significantly better.

What truly makes Soto special is his unique eye at the plate and his consistency in getting on base. During his career, the outfielder has led baseball in walks three times and twice led the league in on-base percentage. In 2022, he walked eight more times (135) than he recorded a hit (127). In the shortened 2020 season, Soto had an on-base percentage at a ridiculous .490 clip. Overall, Soto is tied with Hall of Famer Larry Walker for the second-highest on-base percentage (.421) since 2000, only trailing Barry Bonds’ historic .517 clip.

In modern analytics, Soto is incredibly elite in his hard-contact rate, walk rate and low chase percentage.

Soto’s rare combination of getting on base at a league-high level, hitting for average and smashing the ball out of the ballpark makes him one of the game’s greatest offensive players.

Defensively, Soto possesses an improved arm and recorded a career-high 10 outfield assists this season. Statistically, his defense is far better in right field than in left field, so he could be ready to take over one of the harder spots to play in the league at Fenway Park.

He would make an already solid Red Sox lineup even deeper with quality bats such as Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, Triston Casas and Trevor Story all ready to produce in 2024. Soto would change the complexion of Boston’s future, especially if he signs long-term after a potential trade.

THE CASE AGAINST
The race is not over once the Red Sox make the trade if they are able to deal for Soto. First off, acquiring such a talent will take a major haul of both major league talent and most likely a few of the organization’s top-15 prospects.

Then, Soto will command money that the Red Sox have never spent before. Just twice have the Red Sox given out contracts for over $200 million with David Price ($217 million) prior to the 2016 season and to Rafael Devers, who was extended prior to the 2023 season for $331 million.

Soto has already turned down a $440 million extension from the Washington Nationals in the past prior to being dealt to San Diego. Will the Red Sox be willing to pay the price it will take to keep Soto around long-term?

Additionally, the Red Sox have a crowded outfield situation and will need to refine that group if Soto joins the conversation. Alex Verdugo, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Rob Refsnyder, Masataka Yoshida and Ceddanne Rafaela are all currently in the image for just three outfield spots. Soto will cause the Red Sox to reshuffle and cut down that quantity of players, although it would certainly be worth it given his value to the team.

Moving forward, the Red Sox would also have to find a way to balance a lineup that is becoming increasingly left-handed. Impact bats such as Devers, Casas, Yoshida, Verdugo and Duran are all left-handed while emerging prospects with big league potential in Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel all hit from the left side.

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VERDICT
If the Red Sox feel they hold the package capable of acquiring Soto and that they are willing to offer a franchise record-setting contract, his value validates the deal for Boston to add a game-changing star.