These Realistic Week 16 Outcomes Ideal For Patriots Draft Outlook

There still is much that can happen with the Patriots and their positioning in the 2024 NFL Draft. New England could finish anywhere from the No. 1 spot to somewhere in the teens.

But the franchise’s draft picture could become much clearer by the end of Week 16.

Here’s the current top five, via Tankathon:

1. Chicago Bears (via 2-12 Carolina Panthers; .521 SOS)
2. New England Patriots (3-11; .521 SOS)
3. Arizona Cardinals (3-11; .559 SOS)
4. Washington Commanders (4-10; .513 SOS)
5. Chicago Bears (5-9; .466 SOS)

With strength of schedule being the first draft-order tiebreaker — the team with the lower opponents’ winning percentage gets the higher pick — you really could scoreboard-watch for every game. But to keep things simple, let’s focus on three specific Week 16 outcomes that would be ideal for the Patriots’ draft outlook.

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Outcome 1: Patriots lose at Denver Broncos
This is the most important outcome and the other two don’t matter without it. If New England loses the rest of its games, it’s guaranteed a top-three pick and probably a top-two selection. If the Patriots win one or zero games the rest of their way, they’re guaranteed a top-four pick. With a winnable home game against the New York Jets looming in Week 18, New England might not be able to afford another victory — as weird as that sounds. A loss to the Broncos on Christmas Eve could put the Patriots in the driver’s seat for the No. 2 pick, depending on what happens around the NFL.

Outcome 2: Commanders win at New York Jets
The Commanders, who currently own the SOS tiebreaker over New England, are the team Patriots fans need to worry about. Finishing behind the Cardinals wouldn’t be great, but many around the league believe Arizona is committed to surrounding Kyler Murray with better talent and won’t draft one of the top quarterback prospects. Washington, though, might not be sold on Sam Howell and seemingly could take someone like Drake Maye off the board if it finishes one spot ahead of New England. However, if the Commanders beat the Jets (certainly possible) and the Patriots lose to the Broncos, New England would be able to clinch a top-three pick the following weekend when it visits — and likely loses to — the Buffalo Bills. Washington finishes its season with games against the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys, so Sunday’s matchup with the Jets might be its last real chance for a win.

If the Commanders lose out, they have:

an 81% chance at a top-3 pick
a 33% chance at a top-2 pick
a 3% chance at the No. 1 pick

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 19, 2023

Outcome 3: Cardinals win at Bears
Nothing is set in stone, but there basically is zero chance of the Cardinals winning an SOS tiebreaker over the Patriots. So, it’ll come down to which team has more victories. And if Arizona beats Chicago and New England falls to Denver, the Patriots would need to lose just one of their two remaining games to effectively clinch finishing ahead of the Cardinals in the draft order. Moreover, if the Commanders also beat the Jets, the Patriots could wrap up the No. 2 pick with a loss to Buffalo. Arizona’s other two games are against the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks.

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Ideally, the Patriots would have the No. 2 pick locked up before the season finale against New York. Lumping draft ramifications into an afternoon that also could mark Bill Belichick’s final game with the franchise would just be awkward. Plus, New England’s 15-game winning streak against New York will hang in the balance.

The easiest way to avoid all that weirdness is for the Patriots to lose this weekend, the Cardinals and Commanders to win, and then New England also fall to the Bills in Week 17. The good news is that scenario isn’t far-fetched.

As for the No. 1 pick, the Carolina Panthers, who’ll send their pick to the Bears, will finish their season with games against the Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But again, with the Jets looming in Week 18, New England might need Carolina to win two more games.

Thinking about this stuff is enough to give you a headache. But some much-needed draft Tylenol could arrive as soon as Sunday night.