Why Patriots Super Bowl LVII Long-Shot Bet Isn’t Worst Idea

The Patriots entered a season among the NFL’s Super Bowl favorites more often than not throughout the two-plus decades Bill Belichick has been at the helm in New England.

Times have changed, however. Tom Brady is long gone, the keys have been handed over to Mac Jones and the Patriots no longer have elite talent across the roster. Hell, you could even argue New England’s coaching staff outside of Belichick leaves a lot to be desired — something you could almost never say dating back to 2000.

The Patriots’ status in the league’s hierarchy is reflected in the futures market. New England is a 22-to-1 bet at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the AFC this season, which represents the seventh-longest odds in the conference. If you double that number and add a little extra change, you’ll find the Patriots’ price (+5000) to raise the Lombardi Trophy at State Farm Stadium on the second Sunday in February. More than half of the NFL — 19 teams, to be exact — have shorter odds than Belichick’s bunch to win Super Bowl LVII. The list includes seven teams that didn’t even make the playoffs last season.

So yeah, the odds are stacked against the 2022 Patriots to reach football’s biggest stage, let alone win the seventh championship in the franchise’s history. But placing a Super Bowl future wager on New England before the season gets underway might not be as reckless as you think.

This might have more to do with the Patriots’ conference counterparts than New England itself. Much has been made about the Pats’ problems dating back to the spring and deservedly so, but let’s not act like some of the top AFC teams are totally bereft of issues and concerns. The Los Angeles Chargers have an uncanny ability to shoot themselves in the foot. It might take some time for the new Russell Wilson-Nathaniel Hackett regime in Denver to find a groove, and even if it happens earlier than expected, it feels like all four AFC West teams are bound to beat up on each other.

Working our way east, Lamar Jackson isn’t working with a wealth of high-end talent in Baltimore and who knows where his head is at given his undesirable contract situation. Speaking of QB concerns, do we really see Ryan Tannehill and Tua Tagovailoa leading the Tennessee Titans and the Miami Dolphins, respectively, to the Super Bowl? Matt Ryan has been there before, but he’s past his prime and is tasked with learning a brand-new offense at 37 years old.

As such, the road to AFC supremacy might not be as treacherous of a trek as it’s made out to be. Belichick also knows what it takes to earn that crown better than anyone on the planet and the Jones-led Patriots learned first-hand back in January what it takes to be a Super Bowl-caliber team. The Buffalo Bills obviously didn’t represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVI, but they very well could have had it not been for a mystifying magic act from Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

And winning the conference might be the toughest part for any AFC team with Super Bowl aspirations. The NFC, at least on paper, is the inferior circuit this season and its opposition on Super Sunday figures to be much more battle-tested.

Are we telling you the Patriots have a realistic shot at dancing in the desert while confetti falls down? No, absolutely not. All we’re saying is that if you’re looking to have a Super Bowl longshot in your back pocket this season, a team with a promising young quarterback, iconic head coach and rich championship tradition this century might not be the worst choice.