Why Aaron Nola Makes Sense For Red Sox To Pursue In Free Agency

The Boston Red Sox enter a highly important offseason for the competitive levels of the ballclub for next season.

With a solid offense and a strong bullpen when rested, starting pitching will be at the forefront of additions to the Red Sox this winter.

Among the top free agent arms on the market will be Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola. The right-hander is a proven innings-eater that can steady the rotation at the top. In nine seasons with Philadelphia, Nola has six seasons with an ERA under four, consistently pitches near the top of the rotation for the Phillies and earned an All-Star selection in 2018.

Nola has had a bit of a down year for his standards in 2023, pitching to a 12-9 record and a 4.46 ERA and a 4.03 FIP with 202 strikeouts. While the ERA is higher than normal, Nola still consistently takes the ball, racking up 193.2 innings. That total is more than 40 innings higher than the closest Red Sox starter in Brayan Bello with 151 innings.

Nola also has a solid track record against teams in the American League East, posting a 3.41 ERA in 18 games in 108 1/3 innings in his career.

Speculation of Nola’s fit in Boston is on the rise as the regular season comes to an end. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noted that the Red Sox are contenders for help among frontline starters.

“He is not a high-velocity, swing-and-miss type, but as an old-school starter who takes pressure off his team’s bullpen, Nola figures to be in demand,” Rosenthal wrote. “He might not approach the six-year, $162 million deal the Yankees awarded Carlos Rodón last offseason. But with the Red Sox, Cardinals and Dodgers among the many teams that need top-of-the-rotation starters, he should fare well.”

On the local level, Sean McAdam of MassLive.com believes that Nola would help the Red Sox due to his ability to go deep into games and give his team a chance to win.

“They need somebody who’s going to take the ball every five days and get you 175-180 innings,” McAdam said on the “Fenway Rundown” podcast. “Nola’s not having a great year, which may help the Red Sox in terms of his market. I would imagine because of his innings workload and his ability to take teams deep into games regularly. Pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark and pitching in a big market. All those things are going to make Aaron Nola a very attractive free agent. The fact that he’s going to end up with an ERA north of 4.50 is probably going to take a little shine off that and may limit how much he can command. I still think he’ll be a very desired free agent.”

The 2022 National League champion heads back to October after the Phillies clinched a wild-card berth in an attempt to return to the World Series.

When the offseason hits, Nola will be near the top of the list for pitcher-needy teams like the Red Sox.