Down Year For Mac Jones? Three Patriots Bets Worth Making For 2022

The Patriots enter the 2022 season with many questions facing their offense, and New England’s preseason has not inspired confidence for bettors.

The first test for the offense will be against the Dolphins in Week 1 at Hard Rock Stadium. The Patriots are expected to compete with Miami for second place in the AFC East, with the Buffalo Bills the favorites to not only win the division but the Super Bowl.

While long-shot bets on New England to win the division or the Super Bowl aren’t bad, there are more worthwhile bets that have a higher probability of hitting. Here are three bets worth making on the Patriots this season.

1. Mac Jones Under 3,950.5 passing yards -110

Last season, Mac Jones threw for 3,801 yards in 17 games played in the regular season. He did that on a 67.6% completion percentage and threw 22 touchdowns along with 13 interceptions. DeVante Parker was the big acquisition for the Patriots, and Rhamondre Stevenson will likely get an extended role in his second year. But those boosts don’t necessarily mean a sophomore breakout. It’s unknown how much his pass-catchers from last season will improve, especially Kendrick Bourne, who did not have a great summer.

Who the offensive play-caller will be is a question on the minds of everyone. It appears the question will be answered Week 1, but it could be a fluid situation, like it was in the preseason. There certainly are reasons to be optimistic about the offense, but betting the Under on Jones’ passing yards prop is the wager to make. A $100 bet would pay out $190.91.

2. Matt Judon Over 10.25 sacks +100

New England’s offense might not take a huge leap from Jones’ rookie season, but Bill Belichick can be relied upon for a solid defensive unit. Judon, 30, made a Pro Bowl for his third consecutive season in 2021, and his performance doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon. The edge rusher has looked like a great fit in New England, and the Patriots will need his knack for getting after the quarterback to help them win football games. Judon reached double-digit sacks (12.5) for the first time in his six-year career last season, and he came close in 2019 (9.5). If you’re bullish on Judon continuing his defensive success, a $100 bet on the Over 10.25 sacks prop would pay out $200.

3. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson combined Over 1,500.5 regular-season rushing yards +125

One factor that could hold this bet from hitting is Ty Montgomery. The hybrid running back enters his eighth NFL season, and it appears, based off practice reports and preseason, he will have some type of role in the offense. Montgomery did suffer an ankle injury in the preseason finale against the Las Vegas Raiders, but the roster moves made by the Patriots hint it isn’t as serious as many believed.

Last season, Harris rushed for 929 yards in 15 games off 202 rush attempts that led to 15 touchdowns. In 12 games, Stevenson rushed for 606 yards off 133 attempts that resulted in five touchdowns. If the running back duo is able to play at least 14 games, the bet has a chance of hitting. New England does not project to be pass-heavy, and again, the main threat to this prop failing is Montgomery’s use as a pass-catching back. A $100 bet on this prop would pay out $225.