Patriots-Cowboys Betting Preview: Trends, Props Pick For Week 4
New England hopes to avoid a third straight 1-3 start to the season
The Patriots will get a tough matchup this Sunday when they travel to AT&T Stadium to take on the Cowboys, and all eyes will be on Mac Jones and the offense.
The controversy with Sauce Gardner masked a subpar outing for New England’s offense. The Patriots struggled to create explosive plays against the New York Jets, and Dallas again will be a stout defense for the offense to match against even without Trevon Diggs.
Injuries will be essential to watch heading into kickoff. Jonathan Jones and Cole Strange were limited in Thursday’s practice, and Jones’ absence would be huge given the Cowboys are much better equipped to take advantage of the depleted New England secondary than Zach Wilson and the Jets last week.
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The Cowboys also have their fair share of injuries to monitor, too. Zack Martin and Tyler Biadasz returned to practice Thursday, but left tackle Tyron Smith missed his second practice. Matthew Judon hasn’t slowed down as a defensive playmaker, and he should continue to wreak havoc if Smith misses another game.
Those injuries should give us a better idea of the angle to take on this game and props for each team’s pass catchers.
Here’s all you need to know about Sunday’s Patriots-Cowboys matchup from a betting perspective, with lines and props from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Total: 43.5
When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: AT&T Stadium; Arlington, Texas
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BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
The Patriots are an underdog for the third time this season, and they’re 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games catching points. New England also is 1-9 in its previous 10 games as an underdog of seven points or less. However, the Patriots are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games against NFC opponents. The Patriots hit the over in six of their last seven games as a road underdog. On the other side of the ball, Dallas is 7-0 straight up in its previous seven games after a loss, and it’s 9-1 ATS in its previous 10 home games against teams with a losing record. As a road favorite, the Cowboys hit the over in six of their previous seven games.
PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Mac Jones under 216.5 passing yards (-114) — The Cowboys defense has yet to allow a quarterback to throw for over 200 passing yards. The Arizona Cardinals utilized their run game to beat Dallas last Sunday, and New England likely will do the same with Rhamondre Stevenson off to a slow start to the season. New England ranks 24th in neutral pass rate through three games, and in the last matchup between these teams in the 2021 season, Jones only threw for 229 passing yards. The Patriots will have trouble dealing with Micah Parsons and the Dallas pass rush, which should result in a quiet day for Jones.
COWBOYS PROP TO CONSIDER
Brandin Cooks anytime touchdown (+270) — We’re playing into the revenge narrative with a Cooks touchdown — Stephon Gilmore props were not open Friday morning. As mentioned above, the Patriots will be shorthanded in some capacity even if Jonathan Jones plays. Christian Gonzalez played incredibly in the first three weeks of the season, and he’ll likely get the CeeDee Lamb matchup. Cooks should prove his worth this Sunday and give Dak Prescott help against Judon and the Patriots pass rush.
PICK: Over 43.5 -108
The under on Mac Jones passing yards doesn’t mean this game won’t be high-scoring. New England played into Dallas’ game plan the last time the sides played, and that has a chance of happening again with the Cowboys aiming to avenge a disappointing loss. Both defenses also are capable of scoring touchdowns or creating turnovers to speed the game up. It might not look pretty but expect plenty of touchdowns this Sunday.
