Patriots-Saints Betting Preview: Trends, Prop, Pick For Week 5

The Patriots’ season is in limbo, and Week 5 looks like another must-win matchup for New England.

Bill Belichick’s side started 1-3 for the third straight season, and the Patriots enter Sunday’s matchup against the New Orleans Saints with a bleak outlook after Mac Jones’ awful play in a blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4.

Bailey Zappe proved in the preseason he’s not the answer at quarterback. Still, the vibe in New England is Jones might be playing for his job this Sunday, and he’ll get a matchup against a tough Saints defense led by defensive end Cameron Jordan, for whom Belichick expressed the utmost respect this week.

Luckily for the Patriots, Derek Carr hasn’t been that much better than Jones this season. The veteran quarterback played through a shoulder injury last week, which hindered what should be more of an average offense with Chris Olave yet to continue the pace of production he exhibited in his rookie season.

Both sides have something to prove this Sunday, and hopefully for fans, that results in an entertaining contest.

Here’s all you need to know about Sunday’s Patriots-Saints matchup from a betting perspective, with lines and props from FanDuel Sportsbook.

(-1) New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
Total: 39.5
When: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, Mass.

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BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
The Patriots are 0-7 against the spread in the last seven games they’ve been an underdog, and they are 1-6 ATS in their past seven matchups as a home underdog. But they are 10-5 ATS in the past 15 games against NFC South opponents. Eight of the past 10 games against the NFC have one under the total for the Patriots. However, New England is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 home games against NFC opponents. Conversely, the Saints are 11-3-1 in their last 15 road games against an AFC opponent. New Orleans’ run of play also meant their last 10 games have gone under the total. Eight of its last 10 games against an AFC opponent also have gone under the total.

PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Kendrick Bourne over 33.5 receiving yards (-114) — New England needs to get something going on offense, and Bourne must be the starting point. New Orleans’ defensive line against the Patriots’ offensive line will make things hard on the run game, and the middle of the field might be the way to attack the Saints’ defense. Bill O’Brien has to run more play-action to give Jones easy reads and clean passes to get off. Bourne has the capability of being a yards-after-the-catch player who will be needed if New England wants to get its offense back on the right track.

SAINTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Rashid Shaheed anytime touchdown (+410) — The Patriots traded for J.C. Jackson this week to help fill out their cornerback depth after Christian Gonzalez’s injury. Jackson’s tenure with the Chargers was a disaster, but there’s a chance he could regain his form in a more familiar environment. But if that’s not the case, the Saints’ passing game should get back on track despite Carr admitting Belichick’s defense can take a toll mentally. Shaheed proved earlier this season he can be a legit receiver, but he’s also the trick player guy for them, too. Matthew Judon’s injury limits the ceiling for New England’s defense, and if New Orleans has time for a shot play, Shaheed should be on the receiving end of it.

PICK: Over 39.5 (-110)
We narrowly missed the over last week due to New England’s inept offense, but we’re going with a similar mindset this week. Both defenses are capable of creating turnovers and giving short fields for their offenses. While fans and the market are expecting this to be a slugfest, this matchup could surprise people and be more high-scoring than expected. Despite his multiple flaws, Jones showed he can respond well after a blunder. Carr also has proven he can be at least an average quarterback, and as mentioned with the Shaheed prop, don’t be surprised if these teams try to get creative and run a few trick plays, which should serve to speed up the game and get over the total.