After Week 14, Football Outsiders, a football analytics website, gave the Patriots and Buccaneers a 17.8% chance of meeting in Super Bowl LVI — the highest of all theoretical Big Game matchups.
That number fueled understandable hype over the possibility of Tampa Bay, led by Tom Brady, and New England, led by Bill Belichick, colliding on the NFL’s biggest stage. So, too, did how both teams were performing, as the Patriots were riding a seven-game win streak and the Bucs were 10-3. In fact, at the time, Football Outsiders gave the Patriots the best odds at winning the Lombardi Trophy.
Well, things have changed over the last few weeks.
A showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers now ranks first at 13.1%. The Patriots-Bucs rematch? It now has a 3% chance of happening, good for 10th on the list.
And it’s easy to understand why. Let’s start with the Bucs, whom Football Outsiders now give the sixth-best odds to win the Super Bowl — two spots behind the Patriots.
If Tampa Bay is going to repeat as Super Bowl champion, it will have to do so without the help of Antonio Brown, who’s in the midst of a bizarre and concerning meltdown. The star receiver stormed off the field during Sunday’s game against the New York Jets, and Bucs head coach Bruce Arians later said Brown’s days in Tampa are over. Brown still is listed on the official Buccaneers roster, but multiple reports indicate he indeed has played his last down for the Bucs.
Obviously, losing Brown is a big blow to a Tampa offense that already was limping to the finish line. Star wideout Chris Godwin is done for the season with a torn ACL, and fellow receiver Mike Evans has been dealing with a hamstring injury over the last few weeks. Running backs Leonard Fournette (hamstring) and Giovani Bernard (hip) both are expected to be activated off injured reserve in time for the playoffs, but how effective will they be?
Really, though, this is about Brown. The Bucs needed him to pick up the slack with Godwin out, and now he, too, is out of the picture. Does Brady have the same trust in the Tyler Johnsons and Cyril Graysons of the world as he does in Brown? We doubt it.
Tampa is 12-4 and still could finish as high as the second seed in the NFC — and it has Tom Brady. However, the Bucs now have significant challenges to overcome on their path back to the Super Bowl.
And then there’s the Patriots.
It was far easier to envision New England coming out of the AFC when it was 9-4 and atop the AFC standings. But a two-game losing streak saw the Patriots exit the driver’s seat for the first-round bye and cede control of the division to the Buffalo Bills. Now, unless things get nutty this weekend, Mac Jones and Co. will have to go on the road for at least the first round of the playoffs.
And that’s a big deal. As we’ve mentioned before, this version of the Patriots, with their blend of rookies — including the starting quarterback — and aging veterans, would benefit from a first-round bye more than prior iterations. Also, asking any rookie quarterback, even one as poised as Jones is, to go on the road and beat, say, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in a playoff game is a big ask.
Plus, something has to be said about how the Patriots have looked down the stretch. Their sloppy, undisciplined and passive performances in the post-bye week losses to the Bills and Indianapolis Colts raise concerns that can’t be eliminated by a blowout win over the terrible Jacksonville Jaguars. This Patriots team is good, but are they ready to beat the best the AFC has to offer in a big spot? They’ve given us no reason to believe they are — yet.
Ultimately, we can’t entirely rule out the possibility of Brady and Belichick squaring off in Los Angeles on Feb. 13. You doubt their respective abilities to reach a Super Bowl at your own peril.
And you certainly could make a case for either team reaching and winning a conference championship, as the NFC and AFC both are wide open and the Patriots and Bucs both are talented, well-coached teams.
But them both going all the way? That now feels like what it probably always has been: a pipedream.
