NFL teams no longer value running backs as highly as they once did. The shelf life for the position simply is too short, and numerous teams, including the Patriots, have proven you can find great backs late in the draft or during post-draft free agency.
But there still is a market for high-end running backs, even those with injury histories. Just ask the Panthers.
Carolina on Thursday night traded injury-prone superstar Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers for second-, third- and fourth-round picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, plus a fifth-rounder in 2024. It was a significant move for both sides, with the Panthers replenishing a depleted draft pool and the Niners adding an explosive talent as they look to push for a championship.
With the Nov. 1 NFL trade deadline less than two weeks away, the McCaffrey deal got us thinking: Should New England consider moving fourth-year back Damien Harris?
This isn’t a new topic. Last February, we openly wondered whether the emergence of then-rookie Rhamondre Stevenson could persuade the Patriots to deal Harris, who will be a free agent next spring. And we revisited the issue during the summer after New England took a pair of running backs in the 2022 NFL Draft. However, the retirement of James White and the late-training camp injury to Ty Montgomery effectively eliminated any chances of a preseason Harris trade — if the Patriots even were considering one.
But what about now?
Harris obviously isn’t on McCaffrey’s level, but the 25-year-old still is a very good running back. He currently ranks as the 12th-best running back on Pro Football Focus (teammate Rhamondre Stevenson is fifth) despite missing most of Week 5 and all of Week 6 due to a hamstring injury. Harris has been a full participant in practice this week and appears primed to return for Monday night’s game against the Chicago Bears.
In five games this season, Harris has 257 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 57 carries to go along with eight receptions for 30 yards. He is a starting-caliber back who runs hard and is especially good near the goal line.
The Patriots likely could fetch at least an early-to-mid-round draft pick or two for Harris, which is nothing to snuff at. They also could send him to a contender in exchange for help at a more pressing area of need, such as linebacker or right tackle. Moreover, we’ll spare you the mind-numbing nitty gritty on NFL compensatory picks, but just know the Patriots, assuming they spend money this offseason, probably wouldn’t get a comp pick for Harris if he leaves in free agency. If they did get a comp pick for Harris, the best-case scenario probably would be a fourth-rounder.
So, there certainly are arguments for trading Harris now instead of losing him for nothing in a few months. That would be a wise, on-brand business move by Bill Belichick.
That said, New England probably should go in the other direction.
Though much improved since the summer, the Patriots offense still needs all the help it can get with moving the ball and putting points on the board. There just isn’t much high-end talent on that side of the ball.
In Harris and Stevenson, New England currently has one of the best backfields in the NFL, if not the best. The running game leads the way for New England, and establishing the run is its best path toward victory on most gamedays. Subtracting Harris from that equation would leave the talented-but-young Stevenson with an enormous workload, with rookies Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris as his only backups. We still have no idea whether Montgomery (knee injury) will return this season.
A Harris trade would make the Patriots worse and thinner at running back, thus significantly hampering a run-first offense that still is enduring quarterback uncertainty.
Would a trade involving a linebacker or offensive lineman be a good idea? Maybe. But one involving mid-round draft picks? That would be a hard sell.
There also is something to be said for how a Harris trade might impact the locker room.
While not a captain, Harris is a leader for the Patriots and a close friend of Mac Jones. Moving him potentially could send a mixed message to a team that’s dealt with a fair amount of drama over the last few months. It’s not hard to envision the already-frustrated Jones getting upset about a trade involving Harris.
Ultimately, when it comes to a Harris trade, the risks probably would outweigh the rewards for the Patriots.
