Bears Beating Vikings Was Huge Victory For Patriots’ Draft Hopes

Do the Patriots have two more wins in them?

If not, they’re guaranteed a top three pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

It’s that simple for New England after the Chicago Bears picked up a Monday night road win over the Minnesota Vikings. The victory moved the Bears to 4-8, creating a two-loss gap between Chicago and the 2-9 Patriots.

Here’s the current top 10 with Week 12 now in the books:

(Note: This is the order via Tankathon, which includes remaining opponents in its strength-of-schedule numbers. If two teams finish the same record, the one with the lower opponents’ winning percentage gets the higher pick.)

1. Chicago Bears, via 1-10 Carolina Panthers (.513 SOS)
2. Arizona Cardinals, 2-10 (.560 SOS)
3. New England Patriots, 2-9 (.536 SOS)
4. Chicago Bears, 4-8 (.464 SOS)
5. Washington Commanders, 4-8 (.521 SOS)
6. New York Giants, 4-8 (.521 SOS)
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4-7 (.489 SOS)
8. New York Jets, 4-7 (.516 SOS)
9. Los Angeles Chargers, 4-7 (.528 SOS)
10. Tennessee Titans, 4-7 (.537 SOS)

New England has six games left on its schedule, all of which are losable: vs. Chargers; at Pittsburgh Steelers; vs. Kansas City Chiefs; at Denver Broncos; at Buffalo Bills; vs. Jets.

Of those matchups, the home game against New York feels closest to a pencil-in victory. Of course, the calculus would change if Aaron Rodgers is back under center for the Jets.

But where’s the other potentially easy win? At the Steelers? It’s hard to make that case when Pittsburgh is 7-4 despite seemingly not being a good team.

The Broncos once looked like a beatable opponent for the Patriots, but Sean Payton’s team now is on a five-game winning streak. New England inevitably will be an underdog for the Christmas Eve matchup in Denver.

Obviously, anything could happen over the next six weeks. But at this juncture, the Patriots have a clear path toward a top three pick, with a top two selection looking increasingly likely.