How Controversial Cowboys Win Improved Patriots’ Draft Outlook

The Cowboys’ Saturday night win over the Lions might be a bad look for the NFL, but you’ll take it if you’re a Patriots fan hoping for a top pick in the 2024 draft.

Dallas held off a resilient Detroit squad — with some help from the officials — to earn a 20-19 home victory. Consequently, New England leapfrogged Washington to seize control over the third overall pick in the draft.

Entering Week 17, the 4-11 Patriots were one spot behind the 4-11 Commanders due to a slim margin in strength-of-schedule (the first draft tiebreaker). But the Cleveland Browns’ Thursday night win over the New York Jets, coupled with Saturday’s Cowboys victory, moved the Patriots and Commanders into an SOS tie.

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However, since New England and Washington don’t play in the same conference, the second and third draft tiebreakers — divisional and/or conference records — don’t apply. Instead, the procedure goes to head-to-head, which the Patriots own due to their Week 9 home loss to the Commanders.

Dallas’ win also narrowed the SOS gap between New England and the 5-10 New York Giants. That could come in handy if the Patriots win one of their final two games.

Here’s the updated top five, via Tankathon:

(Note: The team with the lower opponents’ winning percentage receives the higher pick.)

1. Chicago Bears, via 2-13 Carolina Panthers (.521 SOS)
2. Arizona Cardinals, 3-12 (.564 SOS)
3. New England Patriots, 4-11 (.519 SOS)
4. Washington Commanders, 4-11 (.519 SOS)
5. New York Giants, 5-10 (.516 SOS)

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The Patriots are guaranteed to hold a top-four pick if they lose their final two games. They’ll own no worse than a top-seven pick if they lose just one of their remaining games. New England will visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday before hosting the New York Jets next weekend.

The Commanders will host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday before hosting the Cowboys next weekend. The Cardinals, against whom the Patriots basically are guaranteed to win the tiebreaker, will finish their season with games against the Philadelphia Eagles (away) and Seattle Seahawks (home).

The No. 1 pick also still is in play for New England, but it would require the Panthers losing out. Carolina will visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday before hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers next weekend.