After a nearly three-year break, the Jimmy Garoppolo-to-Patriots speculation is back.

This time, however, there’s one massive, unavoidable variable: Bill Belichick’s job status.

Belichick’s fondness for Garoppolo is well-documented. New England reportedly pursued a reunion with its 2014 second-round pick before drafting Mac Jones in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Since then, Garoppolo and Jones both have regressed to the point that most view them as backups, with the latter potentially looking at a Patriots trade this offseason. New England almost certainly will look to upgrade at quarterback this spring, and currently is in line to own a top-two pick in the 2024 draft.

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But even if the Patriots select a QB at the top of the draft, they might still need a bridge starter to give a rookie time to develop. That’s where Garoppolo could come in, according to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler.

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But Fowler stipulated that a reunion only would make sense if Belichick somehow stays in New England, which feels unlikely given the current state of the franchise. Additionally, the contract situation with Garoppolo, who’s been an injury-prone failure in his first season with the Las Vegas Raiders, could complicate things.

“As part of a three-year, $72.5 million deal signed in March, Garoppolo is due $24.5 million in 2024 cash, including a guaranteed roster bonus of $11.25 million,” Fowler wrote Wednesday. “Trading him would be ideal, but that market will not be robust. The Raiders can save $13 million on the cap with a post-June 1 release.

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“If Bill Belichick remains in New England in 2024 — which seems like a big if — Garoppolo would be a natural selection as a bridge free agent starter alongside a draft pick for a revamped QB room.”

Now backing up rookie Aidan O’Connell, Garoppolo completed 65.5% of his passes for 1,205 yards and seven touchdowns to go along with nine interceptions in his first six games with the Raiders. The 32-year-old also dealt with foot and back injuries.

Garoppolo isn’t the only potential bridge option who could be available this offseason. Kirk Cousins is set to hit free agency, as is Baker Mayfield. All three arguably would be upgrades over Jones, who has one year left on his rookie deal.

How the Patriots approach their quarterback situation will be one of the NFL’s top offseason storylines, as will be the future of Belichick. Just don’t be surprised if all roads lead to a Garoppolo reunion.

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Featured image via Stephen R. Sylvanie/USA TODAY Sports Images