In less than 36 hours, former New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will step onto the Gillette Stadium turf for the first time as an opponent. A visitor. An adversary. An “enemy,” as one Patriots assistant put it this week.
Sunday night’s matchup between Bill Belichick’s Patriots and Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers is, without a whiff of hyperbole, the most anticipated regular-season game in NFL history. Its lead-up has felt like a Super Bowl week, conjuring bittersweet feelings of nostalgia and dismay within Patriots fans.
It’s Brady facing his former team and former coach for the first — and, more than likely, last — time. The result won’t define the legacy of either Patriots cornerstone, but it will be a notable bullet point in the enduring Brady versus Belichick debate.
With Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff on the horizon, here’s a look at the 12 biggest questions facing Brady, Belichick and their teams in this contest:
1. Can Bill Belichick outscheme Tom Brady?
From Peyton Manning to Aaron Rodgers to Patrick Mahomes, Belichick has a long history of stymying some of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. This will be one of his toughest challenges yet: Brady, seemingly still at the peak of his powers at age 44 and bolstered by both a tremendous supporting cast and two decades of practicing against New England’s defense on a daily basis.
Brady knows the Patriots better than anyone. He claimed this week he knows “exactly” what they’ll throw at him on Sunday. But no one knows Brady’s strengths and weaknesses more intimately than his former coach. To call this a fascinating chess match would be an understatement.
2. Can the Patriots protect Mac Jones?
The Patriots’ rookie QB has been hit nine and 11 times in the Patriots’ two losses this season. Their troubles up front have been the primary reason for their offensive struggles. They enter the weekend with question marks at both tackle spots, as Trent Brown (who’s played just one series this season) and Isaiah Wynn both have been limited in practice with injuries.
The Bucs’ pass rush has been less disruptive than expected through three games (32nd in the NFL in sack rate), but Tampa Bay has the talent to overwhelm this O-line if it performs the way it has thus far.
3. Can Jones exploit a depleted Bucs secondary?
With Sean Murphy-Bunting on injured reserve and Jamel Dean ruled out for Sunday, Tampa Bay likely will be starting either special teamer Dee Delaney or the newly signed Richard Sherman at one of its cornerback spots. Sherman is one of the best corners of his generation, but he’s also 33 years old and hasn’t stepped on a football field since last season. The Patriots should be able to find mismatches here for wide receivers Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne.
(UPDATE: Sherman, who said this week it would be “foolish” to expect him to contribute so soon after signing, reportedly is expected to start.)
The Bucs rank last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game this season and 17th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, which measures a unit’s overall efficiency. They’ve been stout against the run, though, ranking seventh or better in yards allowed per game, yards allowed per carry and DVOA.
4. How will the Patriots replace James White?
The Patriots lost one of their most important offensive players when White was ruled out for the season with a hip subluxation. It’s unclear how they’ll replace his proficiency in the passing game, both as a receiver and in blitz pickup. Will it be with J.J. Taylor? Rhamondre Stevenson? More Brandon Bolden? A larger pass-game role for lead back Damien Harris? The pressure will be on at least one of these four to fill White’s sizable void.
5. Can Jonnu Smith bounce back?
Smith had one of the worst games by any Patriots pass-catcher in recent memory in last week’s loss to the New Orleans Saints, catching one pass on six targets for 4 yards with multiple drops — including one that resulted in a pick-six — multiple blown blocks and a holding penalty. It was ugly, as Smith himself acknowledged earlier this week. The Patriots need more production out of Smith and their other big-ticket tight end, Hunter Henry, who’ve provided just eight first downs (on 20 total catches) and no touchdowns through three games.
6. Can the Patriots break through in the red zone?
The Patriots have reached the red zone eight times this season and scored touchdowns on just two of those trips — a 25 percent conversion rate that ranks last in the NFL. The reasons for these issues have been myriad: penalties, turnovers, poor execution, questionable play-calling by Josh McDaniels, conservative decision-making by Jones. The tight ends also have combined for just two red-zone receptions, both by Smith.
Exactly half of New England’s points this season have come off Nick Folk field goals. They’ve scored just four total touchdowns in three games. That’s not going to cut it against a Bucs team that enters ranked tied for first in the NFL in points per game.
7. Can J.C. Jackson and Co. contain the Bucs’ wideouts?
The Buccaneers boast one of the NFL’s top receiving trios in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, and they’ll be facing a Patriots defense that still is without top cornerback Stephon Gilmore. New England will need Jackson — an interception magnet who’s been excellent at defending deep balls throughout his career — to play like a No. 1, and for Jalen Mills, Jonathan Jones and Joejuan Williams to provide adequate support. Jackson (questionable, knee) also popped up on the injury report Friday, so his status is worth monitoring.
8. Will Rob Gronkowski play?
Gronkowski surely will do everything in his power to play against his former team, but the tight end is listed as doubtful after not practicing Wednesday or Thursday, with head coach Bruce Arians calling him a game-time decision. Losing Gronk, who seems to have found a fountain of youth this season, would be a blow to Tampa’s offense, as he’s caught four of Brady’s NFL-high 10 touchdown passes. (UPDATE: Gronkowski was officially ruled out Saturday.)
9. When will Brady break the NFL passing record?
An injury is just about the only thing that can prevent Brady from becoming the league’s all-time passing yards leader Sunday night. He needs just 68 yards to move past Drew Brees and into the top spot. The only questions are how long it’ll take him to get there — first quarter? second quarter? — and how the moment will be commemorated. Will the officials stop play for an in-game ceremony, as they did when Brees broke the previous record in his home stadium, or settle for a message on the video board and a brief ovation?
10. How will Brady be received?
He’s sure to receive raucous applause from the Foxboro faithful for all the success he helped bring to this franchise. But how will the Patriots approach his homecoming? Will they ratchet up the emotion of his video tribute in an effort to rattle Brady’s focus, as some have suggested this week? Or will his recognition be more understated? And if the game begins to tilt in Tampa’s favor, will we see Patriots fans rooting for their team or their former quarterback?
11. What will the Brady/Belichick greeting look like?
Embrace? Handshake? Bro hug? Begrudging nod? The fact you can place bets on how Brady and Belichick will greet each other shows you just how big of a spectacle this game is.
12. Can the Patriots pull off an upset?
The Bucs entered the weekend as seven-point road favorites. They’re the defending Super Bowl champions. Their legendary quarterback is, unbelievably, playing some of the best football of his career. The Patriots are 1-2, with two home losses and issues galore in all three phases. Tampa Bay should win this game. But there is a narrow path to victory for New England if it can take advantage of Tampa’s banged-up defense and use a bit of Belichick magic to disarm Brady. Likely? No. Possible? Yes.
