Will the Red Sox make a splash before Opening Day? As part of our “free agency fits” series, we’re examining whether several top players remaining on the open market make sense (or don’t make sense) as Boston builds its roster for the 2022 Major League Baseball season.
So far this offseason, we have considered whether the Red Sox should shell out for stars around the diamond, like first basemen Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo, shortstops Trevor Story and Carlos Correa and outfielders Kyle Schwarber and Michael Conforto, among others.
But the mound isn’t an area to be overlooked for the 2022 Red Sox. There are quite a few question marks after the team lost Eduardo Rodriguez to the Detroit Tigers in free agency — like what Chris Sale will look like when he is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and whether Matt Barnes can regain his form after a tumultuous end to the season.
Does Clayton Kershaw fit in the Red Sox’s rotation? A three-time Cy Young Award winner and an eight-time All-Star, the career Los Angeles Dodgers star certainly is enticing on paper.
Let’s take a closer look.
Info
Position: SP
Age: 33 (March 19, 1988)
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 225 pounds
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
2021 stats
22 appearances (22 starts), 121 2/3 innings
10-8 record, 3.55 ERA, 144 strikeouts
1.02 WHIP, 3.00 FIP, 115 ERA+
10.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 6.86 K/BB
Career stats
379 games (376 starts), 2,454 2/3 innings
185-84 record, 2.49 ERA, 2,670 strikeouts
1.00 WHIP, 2.77 FIP, 155 ERA+
9.8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 4.41 K/BB
Why Kershaw makes sense for Red Sox:
A third pitcher in the rotation behind Sale and Nathan Eovaldi is a necessity considering Rodriguez previously occupied that spot. Nick Pivetta figures to be the favorite for the third rotation slot, at least to start the season, though Tanner Houck very well could make a run at that role down the line after a successful 2021.
Kershaw, a tried-and-true star, has proven he can take a pitching staff to another level. His 2.49 career ERA — amassed over 14 seasons spent with the Dodgers — leads all active pitchers. And even though his 3.55 ERA in 2021 was his highest since his rookie season in 2008, Kershaw still finished with a better ERA than any Red Sox starter besides Sale, who posted a 3.16 ERA in nine starts.
Kershaw also fits right into the spot held by Rodriguez, a lefty, as another southpaw.
Why Kershaw doesn’t make sense for Red Sox:
Considering Sale managed in valuable moments during the postseason, it’s safe to assume he will be ready to go by the time Opening Day rolls around. He has a good source of advice in the clubhouse should he run into trouble, too, considering Eovaldi has recovered from Tommy John surgery twice. But should Sale hit any hiccups — even when he’s healthy, for that matter — the Red Sox need to ensure there reliable starters behind him in the rotation.
Kershaw is a star when he’s healthy, but he was moved to the injured list on eight separate instances in 2021. Most notably, he missed more than two months in the second half of the season with an arm injury, going on the IL on July 7 and returning Sept. 13. He missed the postseason with an arm injury, too.
Entering his age-34 season, it seems Kershaw might be more of a liability than a rotation-topping star — at least for the Red Sox, who inked some pitching depth already. James Paxton, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will not be ready for Opening Day, plus Michael Wacha and Rich Hill joined Boston this offseason.
Spotrac projects Kershaw’s market value as a $31.8 million average annual salary over the course of a three-year deal. That might be adequate in his prime — and Kershaw and teams interested in him likely know that — but it’s impossible to say what sort of contract Kershaw will want to sign and what production teams will get him from him when he does.
With all of that in mind, the Red Sox are better off passing on this one.
Verdict: Not a fit.
Prediction: Kershaw signs with the Texas Rangers
