Patriots 53-Man Roster Projection: One Week Out From Cutdown Day

We’re now just a week away from cutdown day in the NFL. By next Tuesday, the Patriots must remove 37 players from their roster to reach the 53-man limit.

Who stays? Who goes? That’ll be decided after two more practices and one last preseason game — Friday night against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium.

Here is our latest prediction:

QUARTERBACKS (3)
In: Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, Malik Cunningham
Out: Trace McSorley

Cunningham has miles to go in his development as an NFL receiver (five targets, no catches Saturday night against Green Bay) but already can provide value as a Taysom Hill-esque gadget-play QB. McSorley didn’t see the field in either of the first two preseason games.

RUNNING BACKS (3)
In: Rhamondre Stevenson, Ezekiel Elliott, Pierre Strong
Out: Kevin Harris, Ty Montgomery, J.J. Taylor, C.J. Marable

Expect a healthy gap between Stevenson/Elliott and whoever rounds out this depth chart, as the two veterans should handle the vast majority of snaps and touches this season. Strong missed the last week with a concussion but still is the favorite for the No. 3 spot thanks to his rare speed and special teams ability. The versatile Montgomery should be another contender for that job, but he just can’t stay on the field. If both of their injuries linger, Taylor could be a dark-horse roster candidate. He had a strong outing against Green Bay.

TIGHT ENDS (3)
In: Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Matt Sokol
Out: Anthony Firkser, Scotty Washington, Johnny Lumpkin

With a dislocated shoulder putting Gesicki’s Week 1 availability in question, the Patriots essentially need to roster three tight ends. It’s a battle between Sokol and the more accomplished Firkser for that final spot, with the former getting the nod in this projection thanks to his blocking prowess. The 2022 practice squadder was at the point of attack on Stevenson’s 1-yard touchdown run against the Packers.

WIDE RECEIVERS (6)
In: JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, Tyquan Thornton, Demario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte
Out: Tre Nixon, Raleigh Webb, Thyrick Pitts

The Patriots typically don’t keep six receivers (not including Matthew Slater). They’ve done so just once in the last decade (2019). Why might that change this year? Because Boutte, who had a 42-yard touchdown against Green Bay, is promising, and Thornton could be on the shelf to start the season. After a largely unimpressive summer, Thornton suffered a shoulder injury in joint practices and reportedly is considered “week to week.” Here, we have the Patriots carrying the 2022 second-rounder through final cuts, then moving him to injured reserve, since putting him on IR before cutdown day would rule him out for the season. As for Douglas? You can write his name in Sharpie. He’s a roster lock.

OFFENSIVE TACKLES (4)
In: Trent Brown, Conor McDermott, Riley Reiff, Sidy Sow
Out: Andrew Stueber
NFI: Calvin Anderson

Could McDermott be on the chopping block? Maybe, after he struggled in the preseason opener, got demoted and then got hurt. But this group is so thin that he sticks for now out of necessity. Reiff currently is the Patriots’ top right guard until Mike Onwenu returns, and Calvin Anderson still hasn’t made it back from the non-football illness list. The Patriots could be in for an adventure at right tackle for the second straight season. Sow, a fifth-round rookie who played guard for the last four seasons, is the top option there at the moment.

INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINE (4)
In: David Andrews, Cole Strange, Mike Onwenu, Atonio Mafi
Out: Bill Murray, James Ferentz, Chasen Hines, Kody Russey, Micah Vanterpool
IR: Jake Andrews

Jake Andrews currently isn’t injured, but it wouldn’t be surprising if we see a “Foxboro Flu” situation with the first-year Troy product. The Patriots aren’t likely to flat-out cut a player they just drafted in the fourth round, but Andrews has been the least impressive of the three rookie linemen thus far and doesn’t look ready to contribute. Getting Onwenu back from the physically unable to perform list in time for Week 1 would be huge. Something to consider: Would the Patriots entertain moving Onwenu to right tackle once he’s healthy and keeping Reiff at right guard?

DEFENSIVE LINE (7)
In: Davon Godchaux, Lawrence Guy, Christian Barmore, Deatrich Wise, Keion White, Carl Davis, Daniel Ekuale
Out: Sam Roberts, Jeremiah Pharms, Justus Tavai
PUP: Trey Flowers

Two bad penalties against Green Bay hurt Roberts’ case for a roster spot, even if the rest of his performance was solid. There’s a good mix of experience and youth in this group.

LINEBACKERS (8)
In: Matthew Judon, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Marte Mapu, Jahlani Tavai, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings, Chris Board, Mack Wilson
Out: Ronnie Perkins, Terez Hall, Calvin Munson, Diego Fagot, Carson Wells
IR: Raekwon McMillan

If there’s any player at risk here, it’s Wilson, who was relegated to special teams duty by the end of last season. But he’s had an encouraging summer and is next up on the depth chart behind Bentley.

CORNERBACKS (5)
In: Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, Jack Jones, Marcus Jones, Myles Bryant
Out: Shaun Wade, Quandre Mosely, Rodney Randle
IR: Isaiah Bolden

The uncertainty about Bolden’s health following his head injury makes this projection tricky. The seventh-round rookie flew home with the team after a night at a Green Bay hospital, which was a great sign, but it’s not clear when he’ll be ready to get back on the field. Either way, Bolden seems like a player the Patriots want to continue working with. He’s raw, but it’s hard to find a 6-foot-2, 205-pound cornerback with 4.33 speed. We like his odds of sticking around either on the roster or on injured reserve.

SAFETIES (4)
In: Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers, Jalen Mills
Out: Joshuah Bledsoe, Brad Hawkins

Mills has looked lively this preseason in his move from corner to safety. This is a deep, versatile, veteran group, even without Devin McCourty. Third-round rookie Mapu should contribute here, too, as he’s bounced between linebacker and safety alignments in practice.

SPECIALISTS (6)
In: K Chad Ryland, P Bryce Baringer, LS Joe Cardona, ST Matthew Slater, ST Brenden Schooler, ST Ameer Speed
Out: K Nick Folk, P Corliss Waitman
PUP: ST Cody Davis

Baringer’s stats Saturday night: two punts, 120 yards, 3 return yards. Quite the bounce-back after what was described as a less-than-stellar showing in joint practices. The Ryland/Folk battle, meanwhile, remains tight. It wouldn’t be inconceivable for Belichick to keep both if he doesn’t have total faith in the rookie. Speed fell below the cutline in our first few projections, but we now have him making it as a coverage ace. The sixth-round rookie cornerback has seen a ton of special teams work this preseason, including prominent reps as the personal protector on the punt team.