Why Analytics Soured On Patriots’ Draft Hopes Over Last Few Days

Once Week 17 wrapped up, the Patriots had a 23% chance of claiming the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, according to ESPN’s analytics department. The Commanders led the way with 69%.

Four days later, the odds were worse for New England.

Here’s what ESPN’s analytics department currently says about the Patriots’ chances to land the No. 2 pick, according to Seth Walder:

Washington Commanders: 76%
New England Patriots: 18%
Arizona Cardinals: 5%
New York Giants: less than 1%

So, what happened?

Well, a bunch of teams with nothing to gain or lose plan on starting their backup quarterbacks in Week 18. ESPN’s algorithm factors in those variables, as well as the playing statuses of other key players.

The Commanders will start Sam Howell, who’s viewed as a downgrade from Jacoby Brissett. The Ravens will rest Lamar Jackson against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that could have huge tiebreaker ramifications for the draft order (Patriots are rooting for Baltimore). The New York Jets will start Trevor Siemian, likely increasing their chances of beating New England at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.

That’s not to say all hope is lost for Patriots fans who want a top-two pick in the draft. In fact, there still are multiple ways for New England to land the second overall pick even if it beats the Jets.

One thing we know for certain: Barring a bunch of ties, the Patriots can’t finish any lower than the fifth pick. A loss to New York guarantees them a top-three selection.