Is Patriots’ Looming Decision On Hunter Henry Really No-Brainer?

The Patriots have a large group of players set to hit free agency in March.

Some, like Mike Onwenu, should be candidates for long-term deals. Others, like Trent Brown, should be allowed to walk without protest.

But others are somewhere in the middle. They’re very good players who would help New England in 2024 but don’t warrant lucrative long-term deals. For them, the franchise tag might make more sense.

Enter: tight end Hunter Henry… maybe.

NFL teams will have from Feb. 20 to March 5 to assign franchise tags. Free agency will begin shortly afterward on March 13.

You could make a case for the Patriots allowing Henry to leave in free agency, and you could make a case for locking him into a multi-year deal. However, for the 29-year-old tight end, the franchise tag could be an option.

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Here are cases for and against New England franchise-tagging Hunter Henry:

CASE FOR
Over The Cap currently projects a $12.3 million salary for any tight end playing under the one-year franchise tag contract in 2024. Only the special teamer contract ($5.8 million) is lower.

However, per Patriots salary cap guru Miguel Benzan, NFL rules would require Henry’s tag number to be closer to $19 million, making him one of the highest-paid tight ends in football.

If the League Cap number is $242.5M the franchise tag guru @corryjoel has the tag numbers for Mike Onwenu and Kyle Dugger as $19.925M and $16.258M. Because of the 20% rule Hunter Henry’s tag number would be $18.6M, a 20% increase over his 2023 cap number of $15.5M https://t.co/aTbroVgyRo

— Miguel Benzan projects Pats Cap Space to be 69.4M (@patscap) February 3, 2024

Obviously, that’s a big difference, one that completely changes the conversation.

Is Henry worth that much money? Perhaps not for contending teams, but it might be a different story for the rebuilding Patriots.

All signs point toward New England welcoming a new franchise quarterback in 2024. If that quarterback is going to succeed, they’ll need to be surrounded with major pieces, including a stout left tackle and a big-play receiver. But they’ll also need a reliable, chain-moving pass-catcher who also is a threat in the red zone. That’s Henry.

His days as a top-tier tight end might be over, but Henry still is an above-average option at the position. He averaged 47 catches for 542 yards and six touchdowns per 17 games over his first three seasons in New England despite the myriad issues that plagued the offense. Henry also erased all concerns about his durability, playing in 48 consecutive games before missing the final three contests of the 2023 campaign.

Furthermore, Henry established himself as a leader in the locker room after being named a team captain. He’s an asset both on and off the field.

The Patriots absolutely should target a new franchise tight end in the draft. But they also can’t enter the season with a tight end depth chart headlined by a rookie and a middling veteran like Pharaoh Brown.

The solution: Slap the franchise tag on Henry and bring him back for at least one more season, even if he’s overpaid.

CASE AGAINST
This is the one we’re going with, and it should be a no-brainer.

First of all, Henry might done with the Patriots after the drama of the last three years. And if he’s not going to be happy, the Patriots shouldn’t force the issue.

But Henry also isn’t that good, with most of his stats ranking middle of the road among all tight ends from 2021 through 2023. He’s at his best in short-yardage scenarios and near the goal line. If you think the Patriots need a modern tight end capable of delivering big plays, then Henry isn’t your guy. He’s more solid than spectacular.

To that end, Henry arguably isn’t even the best tight end set to hit free agency. That honor probably goes to Dalton Schultz, who’s two years younger than Henry at 27 years old and is similarly average as a blocker. You also could make a case for the 26-year-old Noah Fant, who’s comparable to Henry in size, blocking prowess and pass-catching ability.

If New England is willing to pay nearly $19 million for a tight end, it could do better than Henry in both the free agent and trade markets.

Henry gets extra points for being a known commodity. But if that known commodity could be replaced with a better player for similar — or even less — money, New England must consider it.

Then again, similar arguments were made for targeting JuJu Smith-Schuster over Jakobi Meyers — and look how that turned out.

Ultimately, if the Patriots want to keep Henry around, they should pursue a multi-year deal with a more affordable and justifiable salary. Spotrac currently gives Henry a 2024 market value of one year, $7.6 million, which feels about right. Perhaps two years and $15 million gets it done.

Either way, placing the franchise tag on Henry would make little sense for the Patriots.