Could Packers Make Postseason Over Aaron Rodgers-Led Jets?
The market is very high on New York
The 2023 NFL season will bring new-found excitement for the Jets that hasn’t been felt in over a decade.
New York completed its trade with the Packers for Aaron Rodgers that also included a first-round pick swap in this year’s draft, and Green Bay received a sixth-round pick and a conditional 2024 second-round pick, which becomes a first if Rodgers is in 65% of the plays.
The betting markets are high on the Jets, but there is reason to be skeptical. Rodgers enters his age-40 season and will have to navigate a tough AFC. New York gets a fourth-place schedule, but the AFC East will face teams from the AFC West and NFC East in 2023, too. The Jets will welcome teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles to MetLife Stadium, but those still won’t be easy matchups.
The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will be in the mix in the AFC East, and the New England Patriots are building a defense equipped to compete in the division despite multiple question marks with the offense.
New York had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season, but defense historically regresses year-over-year, and it would be a mistake to expect a top-five unit in DVOA this season.
The NFC North will face AFC West opponents, but the Packers also face teams from the NFC South in 2023, along with a third-place schedule. That’s a much easier schedule, on paper, than what the Jets.
But oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook see it more likely that New York makes the postseason over the Packers. The price on that scenario is +150, and the odds on the Packers making the playoffs and the Jets missing the playoffs are set at +500.
It’s possible both teams make the postseason, which would not net a payout on a wager on either side, but there is reason to be optimistic about the Packers.
The Detroit Lions are the favorite to win the division, and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will have more weapons to utilize after the offseason the team had, but how much better is Jared Goff than Jordan Love? Detroit selected Hendon Hooker in the third round, but multiple analysts expect him to sit for a year, especially during his recovery from an ACL injury he suffered last season.
The Minnesota Vikings are sure to regress after an 11-1 season in one-score games, and the Chicago Bears still are in the middle of a rebuild.
Green Bay also plays in an easier conference. Six of the top 10 teams in Super Bowl odds at FanDuel are from the AFC. There just aren’t that many teams, on paper, that are expected to run the table. That played out last season when the Eagles dominated, and the Vikings benefitted from a weak conference to earn home-field advantage in the wild-card round.
Matt LaFleur has a lot to prove in his first season without Rodgers, but it’s possible things play out like it did for the Seahawks. Seattle’s stock was at its lowest in nearly a decade after it traded Russell Wilson to the Broncos. But Geno Smith had a career resurgence and was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. Denver struggled with Wilson under center.
Nathaniel Hackett, who was hired as the Jets’ offensive coordinator this offseason, also was exposed as an inferior offensive mind when Rodgers wasn’t around, and the Seahawks made the playoffs over the Broncos, despite preseason expectations predicting the opposite.
The NFL is a wacky league, which is why it garners so much national attention. The Jets will be getting more of a national spotlight, and they will have to work hard to make sure the 2023 season doesn’t end the same way Brett Favre’s first season in New York ended: In bitter disappointment.
