Power Ranking Last-Place NFL Teams To Win Division In 2023

Parity in the NFL has grown to the point where any team can win on a week-to-week basis, which is why franchises that finish last in their division one season can bounce back and finish first the next.

This happened to the Jacksonville Jaguars last season, and it tends to happen at least one time every season in recent years. This season has two obvious candidates and one team that has very little chance to do so. But there are teams where if the right opportunity arises, they can be a breakout candidate.

Let’s get into the top candidates to win their respective divisions and look at potential cases for the mid-tier clubs. Odds courtesy of FanDuel.

1. New York Jets (+250)
The Jets are a popular choice to not only win the AFC East but also win the Super Bowl. There are plenty of reasons to fade Gang Green, and it appears the market has leaned toward fading New York and boosting the Green Bay Packers, but Aaron Rodgers still will attract a lot of attention, and he will face a big challenge with the offensive line. However, if Rodgers helped New York win the AFC East for the first time since 2002, there wouldn’t be much surprise.

2. Atlanta Falcons (+210)
The New Orleans Saints are a popular pick to take advantage of one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. But the NFC South still is wide open, and the Falcons have a lot of interesting weapons to give the Saints a run. Bijan Robinson is the headline, and despite the poor choice of taking a running back in the top 10, Arthur Smith has a clear vision for his team: Run the ball down the other team’s throat. The Falcons have a 1-2 punch with Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, and if Desmond Ridder can competently get Drake London and Kyle Pitts the ball, Atlanta has a shot at the NFC South crown.

3. Houston Texans (+1000)
For as much negativity the NFC South gets, its AFC counterpart isn’t much better. The Jaguars are expected to repeat, but it’s possible Doug Pederson’s side might have just performed way above expectation and regression could hurt them. A bet on the Texans is a bet C.J. Stroud makes a smooth transition from college to the NFL. The offensive line will need to be average to help out Dameon Pierce in his sophomore season. And pass-catchers like Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz will need to have above-average seasons for Houston to sneak past the Jaguars.

4. Chicago Bears (+430)
Rodgers is out of Green Bay, and the darling of the NFC North now is the Lions. The love for Detroit might have gone too far, and the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers have too many questions that could benefit the Bears. Justin Fields must improve as a passer, which D.J. Moore could help with. The defense also needs to play better, especially with the other NFC North teams boasting exciting receiving talent. Don’t count out the Bears if Fields takes a huge leap in his third season.

5. Washington Commanders (+1300)
We’re starting to get thinner cases in the second half of this list. Sam Howell flashed his talent in the preseason, but that might only serve to boost the profile of the NFC East, which can be argued is the best division in the NFL. It’s hard to see the Commanders beating out the Philadelphia Eagles for the division title. Washington is closer to a wild-card spot, especially if the New York Giants regress and the Dallas Cowboys find a way to implode. Howell needs to be competent to get passes to Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson and the defense needs to return to dominance to keep Washington competitive.

6. Cleveland Browns (+400)
Deshaun Watson struggled last season, which is natural given his extended absence from football due to suspension for his allegations. Whether or not Watson can return to form will be the big question for the Browns. They still want to be a run-first team with Nick Chubb, but their ceiling is dependent on whether Watson can make Cleveland an above-average passing offense. That will help them compete against the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North.

7. Denver Broncos (+600)
Sean Payton took an aggressive approach by criticizing Nathaniel Hackett for his tenure as Denver coach. That would seem to imply he believes Russell Wilson still has something left in the tank and isn’t washed as last season would indicate. Injuries to the offense hurt what already is a thin case for Denver. The Broncos played tough against the Kansas City Chiefs last season, but that’s as far as they can go to challenge for the AFC West.

8. Arizona Cardinals (+2700)
If it’s not clear the Cardinals are tanking, then their fans might live in a fantasy world. This will be a rough season for Arizona. Colt McCoy playing quarterback while doing a film review show seemed to be too on the nose for Arizona, which cut the veteran QB. Instead, it will either trot out another journeyman or a rookie, but we would highly advise not taking any bet on the Cardinals unless it’s under their win total.