Patriots-Chargers Betting Preview: Trends, Prop, Pick For Week 13
Another great matchup presents itself for New England
The Patriots became a laughingstock during their four-game skid heading into Week 13, but a winnable matchup presents itself when the Chargers arrive at Gillette Stadium.
New England fans might have a strong rooting interest in Los Angeles this Sunday since the Patriots would have a better chance at landing at least a top-three pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The prospect of good football flew by the wayside after the loss to the Washington Commanders, which seemed to be when Mac Jones went down a spiral and started to lose the “vast majority” of the locker room, according to the Boston Herald.
Bailey Zappe is expected to be the starter, and Malik Cunningham took backup reps during practice. There’s little evidence to suggest Zappe is a significant upgrade over Jones, but if Cunningham finally gets a role in the Patriots offense, that could provide fans some sort of entertainment over an inconsistent Chargers team.
Brandon Staley arguably is at the top of the most frustrating head coaches in the NFL. He could be staring at his replacement this Sunday, though local Los Angeles media played down the narrative of Bill Belichick becoming the next Chargers head coach.
But for a defensive head coach, Los Angeles’ defensive unit ranks in the bottom 10 in all defensive EPA metrics, which could be what the Patriots need to help them feel good about themselves. However, the Giants also should have been that matchup, and Jabrill Peppers summed it up well after the game to Saquon Barkley.
Los Angeles’ offense struggles to sustain drives to the point where it has people wondering if Mike McCarthy was the smart one and not offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
These teams simply aren’t interesting to watch, which is why if you’re not obligated to watch the game, there are plenty of ways to get into it from a betting perspective.
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Here’s all you need to know about this Sunday’s Patriots-Chargers matchup from a betting perspective. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
(-5.5) Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Total: 40.5
When: Sunday, Dec. 3 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, Mass.
More Betting
BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
The Chargers are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games against the Patriots, and they are 5-2 toward the over in their last seven road games against New England, according to VSiN. Both head coaches have been bad ATS with Staley going 3-7-1 ATS in his last 10 games, and Belichick has gone 2-13 ATS in his last 15 games. The Patriots also are 1-6 in their last seven games as an underdog and have gone an even worse 2-13 in their last 15 games as an underdog of seven points or less. December also typically has been a time when New England games go under the total with it going eight of its last 10 December games going under the total.
PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Bailey Zappe under 201.5 passing yards (-114) — The Patriots are 26th in neutral pass rate through Week 12, and Bill O’Brien might want to keep it that way. There are multiple ways to beat the Chargers defense, but it’s unlikely Zappe will be the reason why New England would win this game. If Cunnigham does become a key part of the game plan, then that would take away opportunities for Zappe, who still has to play in front of a weak offensive line going up against Khalil Mack. The second-year quarterback might have an efficient outing but don’t expect him to air out.
CHARGERS PROP TO CONSIDER
Justin Herbert 300+ alternative passing yards (+360) — We’re going aggressive with this one, but is there such thing as a reverse revenge game? J.C. Jackson was a shell of his former self during his Los Angeles tenure to the point where the front office apologized for the move. When he actually does play for the Patriots this season, opposing offenses aren’t afraid to throw the ball his direction. Quentin Johnston and Jalen Guyton aren’t that great, but if there was a get-right spot for the Chargers offense, it would be against a New England defense that even Sam Howell was able to shred.
PICK: Over 40.5 (-110)
It’s really tempting to take the Patriots with the points, but we’re taking a “believe it when we see it” approach with a team that is 1-4 at Gillette Stadium this season. Los Angeles was competent enough to take down bad teams like the Chicago Bears and the New York Jets, so we’re begrudgingly respecting the possibility it can beat the Patriots by a touchdown. But for all the talk about how inconsistent these offenses can be, the defenses are bad enough that big plays can be generated. It also would be poetic for a high-scoring game to end with a Zappe interception for another Patriots loss.
